Forex forecast

EUR/USD: short term bearish correction, dollar still weak

Following a quiet Asian session, the greenback gains some ground against its major rivals, underpinned by news coming from the UK, as the Pound fell following news showing that the UK Government will trigger the Brexit next March 29th. The macroeconomic calendar has remained extremely light at the beginning of the week, with only Germany releasing its February PPI data, in line with expectations monthly basis, and up year-on-year to 3.1% from previous 2.4%. There's not much ahead after Wall Street's opening, except for a speech from Fed's Evans mid US afternoon, and another from US President Trump early Asia.

20.03.2017 16:31:00

GBP/USD fails to sustain Monday’s recovery move, Brexit worries weigh

In the latest Brexit development, the House of Commons turned down the amendments passed by the House of Lords and passed the Brexit bill, allowing the UK PM Theresa May to trigger Article 50 and formally begin the process of ending the country’s association with the European Union. Meanwhile, Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon confirmed that she would ask for permission to hold a second independence referendum.

14.03.2017 12:16:16

EUR/USD Forecast: short term buying interest defending 1.0630

Investors are favoring the greenback this Tuesday, as poor data coming from Australia and the UK Parliament granting PM May permission to trigger the Brexit with no amendments, weighed on high-yielding assets. The EUR/USD pair, however, remains reluctant to ease much, holding around the 1.0630 region, a previous strong resistance, and now support.

14.03.2017 12:15:01

EUR/USD Forecast: It's Draghi show-time

Majors saw little action overnight, as the first of the two events that will set the tone for currencies looms. The European Central Bank is having is monetary policy meeting this Thursday, and the Central Bank is not expected to introduce changes to the ongoing policy, but as usual, hopes are on Draghi's speech.  The market is expecting for a more optimistic stance from policy makers, and for upgrade in growth and inflation forecasts amid the latest macroeconomic releases in the EU that indicate a healthy recovery since late 2016.

09.03.2017 13:11:00

EUR/USD Forecast: at three-week high, poised to keep advancing

The EUR/USD maintains the positive momentum seen late Friday, after Fed's Yellen pretty much confirmed a rate hike for this March. The pair extended its advance up to 1.0639, a fresh 3-week high, although there's no follow-through and the pair hovers around the 1.0620/30 region. Local share markets are trading with a downbeat tone, helping the common currency to advance.

06.03.2017 13:02:44

EUR/USD Forecast: waiting for data to set direction

The EUR/USD pair trades marginally higher this Monday, but with little upward momentum and within a limited range, as a scarce macroeconomic calendar kept majors limited during the Asian session. Things will get more interesting mid European morning, as the EU will release its confidence figures for February, while ahead of the Wall Street opening, the US will release Durable Goods Orders for January, and later, some minor housing and manufacturing figures.

27.02.2017 16:03:51

GBP/USD Forecast: potential Scottish independence referendum weighs

The Pound weakened against all of its major rivals ever since the day started, undermined by news reporting that the UK Government is preparing for a potential Scotland independence referendum. Scottish PM Nicola Sturgeon has said that a referendum is "highly likely" now that the UK has decided to break with the EU. There are no official comments on the matter, but the news were enough to send the GBP/USD pair down to 1.2383.

27.02.2017 16:02:44

EUR/USD Forecast: 1.0453 next bearish target

The EUR/USD pair fell down to 1.0497, right after London's opening, barely recovering some ground after the release of the German IFO survey. Business sentiment rebounded in February with the index up to 111.0 from previous 109.8, with the assessment of the current situation up to 118.4 and expectations also on the rise, up to 104. Euro area annual inflation was 1.8% in January 2017, up from 1.1% in December 2016, down monthly basis by 0.8%, as expected.

22.02.2017 13:55:23

EUR/USD Forecast: quiet consolidation in thin trading

The week starts in slow motion with the US on holidays and a scarce macroeconomic calendar. Around stocks, so far is risk-on day, with Asian equities trading modestly higher and European ones gapping higher at the opening. The EUR/USD pair is confined to a measly 30 pips range since the opening, barely above the 1.0605 low posted last Friday, despite better-than-expected PPI in Germany. In January, the index of producer prices rose 0.7% from December, and by 2.4% when compared to January 2016. The EU will release its February preliminary Consumer Confidence data, expected to have declined from -4.7 to -4.9, whilst there won't be releases coming from the US.

20.02.2017 12:56:32

GBP/USD Forecast: holding range bound below 1.2540

The Pound is outperforming its major peers against the greenback, advancing up to 1.2482 after London's opening, and trading not far below the level. The UK released its Rightmove house price index overnight, which came in better-than-expected, up by 2.0% in the month from previous 0.4%.  Still, the index is hardly a market mover, and there was no fundamental trigger for the intraday advance.

20.02.2017 12:54:44

EUR/USD Forecast: soft recovery, but still at risk of falling

The American dollar started the week firm against its major rivals, helped by a soft reading of the Japanese Q4 GDP, which sent the USD/JPY pair up to 114.16. The EUR/USD pair fell to 1.0611 during the Asian session, but bounced back ahead of London opening, trading now near a daily high of 1.0657.

13.02.2017 12:28:04

EUR/USD Forecast: bearish breakout on political woes

The dollar is back in fashion, rallying against all of its major rivals with political uncertainty weighing on European currencies. After officially lunching her bid for the French presidency, Marine Le Pen, the leader of the French far-right Front National party, promised that, if elected, her party would pull France out of the European Union, and fight radical Islam.

07.02.2017 13:59:46

EUR/USD Forecast: short term bearish

The EUR/USD pair retreats from a daily high set at the beginning of the day at 1.0790, trading near a daily low of 1.0742, with European equities under pressure, but commodity-related ones are still strong against the greenback. Germany released December Factory Orders so far today, indicating an increase of 5.2% monthly basis, the most since 2014, and of 8.1% when compared to a year before. The data is quite encouraging, as it confirms the strong economic expansion of the country suggested by previous macroeconomic releases.  The EU Sentix Investor Confidence Index for February came in at 17.4, matching expectations.

06.02.2017 13:12:04

EUR/USD Forecast: weaker ahead of the Nonfarm Payroll release

The greenback is modestly higher against the EUR, with the pair trading around 1.0745, despite another round of encouraging data coming from the EU. The final January services and composite Markit PMIs for the EU ticked higher from initial flash estimates, with the services PMI reaching 53.7 and the composite up to 54.4. German and French figures also beat fists estimates, while Italian and Spanish figures were revised lower. The dollar is benefiting from easing risk aversion, as stocks trade in the green across Europe, although a cautious mode persists ahead of the release of the US Nonfarm Payroll report.

03.02.2017 12:56:48

EUR/USD Forecast: bullish, but break above 1.0840 needed

The EUR/USD holds on to its Trump-triggered gains, after the new administration down talked the greenback earlier this week. The FOMC meeting did little for the local currency, as policy-makers maintained an on-hold stance, leaving the fed funds target unchanged at 0.5%-0.75%, and refrained from providing any clues on further rate hikes.

02.02.2017 11:56:49

EUR/USD Forecast: neutral, waiting for a trigger

The EUR/USD pair continues trading uneventfully around the 1.0700 level, although the greenback is softer after London's opening. Multiple Central Banks' decisions alongside with the US Nonfarm Payroll report release this Friday keeps investors in wait-and-see mode, alongside with the huge uncertainty surrounding the new US administration. It has been a week since Trump took over the office, and there was not a single day without a surprise announcement that affected the financial world.

31.01.2017 11:49:58

EUR/USD Forecast: risking a downward extension

The American dollar gapped lower against most of its major rivals at the weekly opening, although there was no specific catalyst for dollar's weakness, beyond new controversial measures announced by the new administration, with bans to migrants and attacks in the Middle East. The dollar's negative tone however, reversed mid Asian session, with the currency entering positive territory against most major rivals after London's opening.

30.01.2017 11:48:04

EUR/USD Forecast: bearish ahead of US critical macro figures

The EUR/USD pair stands at the lower end of its weekly range this Friday, as investors wait for the upcoming US Q4 GDP release. The American dollar recovered ground as US stocks keep rallying to record highs, indicating that confidence on growth policies coming from the new administration is back. There are some minor releases coming from Europe, but the market will focus in US figures, as the country will release several first-tier data.

27.01.2017 14:57:33

EUR/USD Forecast: still confined to a tight range

The EUR/USD pair extends its consolidative phase this Thursday, unable to leave the 1.0710/70 range set at the beginning of the week. The positive mood among investors persists, as Asian shares rose, whilst European ones extended their Wednesday advances to fresh multi-year highs. Data coming from EUR continued to be supportive, as German´s CFK Consumer confidence survey is up to 10.2 for February, from 9.9 in January.

26.01.2017 12:17:27

EUR/USD Forecast: scope to advance up to 1.0840

The EUR/USD pair extended its advance up to 1.0771 early Asia, but pulled back from the level, easing towards the 1.0730 region early London, overall maintaining the positive tone. Data coming from Europe was mixed, as according to preliminary Markit PMIs, the services sector grew at a slower-than-expected pace at the beginning of 2017. Still, in Germany, manufacturing is estimated to have grew by 56.5 against previous 55.6, with the composite output is estimated at 54.7 for the month. In the EU, the services PMI index came in at 53.6, its lowest in 3 months, whilst the manufacturing one rose to 55.1, its highest in 69 months.

24.01.2017 11:53:52

EUR/USD Forecast: bullish, beware of strong resistance at 1.0770

The greenback is under strong selling pressure this Monday, extending the negative momentum triggered by Donald Trump's inaugural speech. The absence of clear comments regarding taxes or investment measures, alongside with strong protectionism wording, are behind this dollar's decline. The macroeconomic calendar will remain light this Monday, with the most relevant release being the EU consumer confidence for January later on the day.

23.01.2017 14:18:58