Analytics

Forex forecast

EUR/USD continues to find support near 1.0600 handle amid lighter trading activity

The EUR/USD pair once gained some fresh traction near the very important 1.0600 support area and traded with positive bias at the start of a new week. After a lackluster start, the pair caught some fresh bids amid some renewed weakness surrounding the greenback, in wake of Friday's disappointing US macro data - monthly retail sales and the latest CPI print. Adding to this, rising tensions between the US and N. Korea continues to weigh on the buck and supported the Euro's funding currency status, helping the pair to continue defending the year-to-date ascending trend-line support.

17.04.2017 13:11:25

EUR/USD Forecast: any recovery beyond 1.06 mark seems unsustainable

The EUR/USD pair struggled to register any meaningful recovery from one month low touched during early Aisna session and continued trading with mild negative bias below the 1.0600 handle through early European session on Monday.

10.04.2017 11:47:03

GBP/USD Forecast: struggling around 1.2500 on disappointing data

The GBP/USD pair fall sub-1.2500 following the release of the UK Markit manufacturing PMI for March, which came in at 54.2, a four months low, against February's 56.2 and the expected 55.1. Still, the number indicates that the UK manufacturing sector remained solid at the end of the first quarter, according to the official releases, although the rate of expansion slowed. The GBP/USD pair eased to a daily low of 1.2491 after the news, hovering now around the 1.2500 figure.

03.04.2017 14:44:10

GBP/USD Forecast: rally extends as Retail Sales jump

The GBP/USD pair peaked at 1.2515 earlier in the day,  retreating modestly below the 1.2500 threshold, ahead of the release of the UK Retail Sales figures. Data beat expectations, and the upward surprise boosted the Pound. Sales surged by 1.4% in February and when compared with the previous month, while year-on-year sales surged by 3.7%. Excluding fuel, sales also surged, by 1.3% and 4.1% monthly and yearly basis respectively. January figures suffered downward revisions.

23.03.2017 15:46:34

EUR/USD: short term bearish correction, dollar still weak

Following a quiet Asian session, the greenback gains some ground against its major rivals, underpinned by news coming from the UK, as the Pound fell following news showing that the UK Government will trigger the Brexit next March 29th. The macroeconomic calendar has remained extremely light at the beginning of the week, with only Germany releasing its February PPI data, in line with expectations monthly basis, and up year-on-year to 3.1% from previous 2.4%. There's not much ahead after Wall Street's opening, except for a speech from Fed's Evans mid US afternoon, and another from US President Trump early Asia.

20.03.2017 16:31:00

GBP/USD fails to sustain Monday’s recovery move, Brexit worries weigh

In the latest Brexit development, the House of Commons turned down the amendments passed by the House of Lords and passed the Brexit bill, allowing the UK PM Theresa May to trigger Article 50 and formally begin the process of ending the country’s association with the European Union. Meanwhile, Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon confirmed that she would ask for permission to hold a second independence referendum.

14.03.2017 12:16:16

EUR/USD Forecast: short term buying interest defending 1.0630

Investors are favoring the greenback this Tuesday, as poor data coming from Australia and the UK Parliament granting PM May permission to trigger the Brexit with no amendments, weighed on high-yielding assets. The EUR/USD pair, however, remains reluctant to ease much, holding around the 1.0630 region, a previous strong resistance, and now support.

14.03.2017 12:15:01

EUR/USD Forecast: It's Draghi show-time

Majors saw little action overnight, as the first of the two events that will set the tone for currencies looms. The European Central Bank is having is monetary policy meeting this Thursday, and the Central Bank is not expected to introduce changes to the ongoing policy, but as usual, hopes are on Draghi's speech.  The market is expecting for a more optimistic stance from policy makers, and for upgrade in growth and inflation forecasts amid the latest macroeconomic releases in the EU that indicate a healthy recovery since late 2016.

09.03.2017 13:11:00

EUR/USD Forecast: at three-week high, poised to keep advancing

The EUR/USD maintains the positive momentum seen late Friday, after Fed's Yellen pretty much confirmed a rate hike for this March. The pair extended its advance up to 1.0639, a fresh 3-week high, although there's no follow-through and the pair hovers around the 1.0620/30 region. Local share markets are trading with a downbeat tone, helping the common currency to advance.

06.03.2017 13:02:44

EUR/USD Forecast: waiting for data to set direction

The EUR/USD pair trades marginally higher this Monday, but with little upward momentum and within a limited range, as a scarce macroeconomic calendar kept majors limited during the Asian session. Things will get more interesting mid European morning, as the EU will release its confidence figures for February, while ahead of the Wall Street opening, the US will release Durable Goods Orders for January, and later, some minor housing and manufacturing figures.

27.02.2017 16:03:51

GBP/USD Forecast: potential Scottish independence referendum weighs

The Pound weakened against all of its major rivals ever since the day started, undermined by news reporting that the UK Government is preparing for a potential Scotland independence referendum. Scottish PM Nicola Sturgeon has said that a referendum is "highly likely" now that the UK has decided to break with the EU. There are no official comments on the matter, but the news were enough to send the GBP/USD pair down to 1.2383.

27.02.2017 16:02:44

EUR/USD Forecast: 1.0453 next bearish target

The EUR/USD pair fell down to 1.0497, right after London's opening, barely recovering some ground after the release of the German IFO survey. Business sentiment rebounded in February with the index up to 111.0 from previous 109.8, with the assessment of the current situation up to 118.4 and expectations also on the rise, up to 104. Euro area annual inflation was 1.8% in January 2017, up from 1.1% in December 2016, down monthly basis by 0.8%, as expected.

22.02.2017 13:55:23

EUR/USD Forecast: quiet consolidation in thin trading

The week starts in slow motion with the US on holidays and a scarce macroeconomic calendar. Around stocks, so far is risk-on day, with Asian equities trading modestly higher and European ones gapping higher at the opening. The EUR/USD pair is confined to a measly 30 pips range since the opening, barely above the 1.0605 low posted last Friday, despite better-than-expected PPI in Germany. In January, the index of producer prices rose 0.7% from December, and by 2.4% when compared to January 2016. The EU will release its February preliminary Consumer Confidence data, expected to have declined from -4.7 to -4.9, whilst there won't be releases coming from the US.

20.02.2017 12:56:32

GBP/USD Forecast: holding range bound below 1.2540

The Pound is outperforming its major peers against the greenback, advancing up to 1.2482 after London's opening, and trading not far below the level. The UK released its Rightmove house price index overnight, which came in better-than-expected, up by 2.0% in the month from previous 0.4%.  Still, the index is hardly a market mover, and there was no fundamental trigger for the intraday advance.

20.02.2017 12:54:44

EUR/USD Forecast: soft recovery, but still at risk of falling

The American dollar started the week firm against its major rivals, helped by a soft reading of the Japanese Q4 GDP, which sent the USD/JPY pair up to 114.16. The EUR/USD pair fell to 1.0611 during the Asian session, but bounced back ahead of London opening, trading now near a daily high of 1.0657.

13.02.2017 12:28:04

EUR/USD Forecast: bearish breakout on political woes

The dollar is back in fashion, rallying against all of its major rivals with political uncertainty weighing on European currencies. After officially lunching her bid for the French presidency, Marine Le Pen, the leader of the French far-right Front National party, promised that, if elected, her party would pull France out of the European Union, and fight radical Islam.

07.02.2017 13:59:46

EUR/USD Forecast: short term bearish

The EUR/USD pair retreats from a daily high set at the beginning of the day at 1.0790, trading near a daily low of 1.0742, with European equities under pressure, but commodity-related ones are still strong against the greenback. Germany released December Factory Orders so far today, indicating an increase of 5.2% monthly basis, the most since 2014, and of 8.1% when compared to a year before. The data is quite encouraging, as it confirms the strong economic expansion of the country suggested by previous macroeconomic releases.  The EU Sentix Investor Confidence Index for February came in at 17.4, matching expectations.

06.02.2017 13:12:04

EUR/USD Forecast: weaker ahead of the Nonfarm Payroll release

The greenback is modestly higher against the EUR, with the pair trading around 1.0745, despite another round of encouraging data coming from the EU. The final January services and composite Markit PMIs for the EU ticked higher from initial flash estimates, with the services PMI reaching 53.7 and the composite up to 54.4. German and French figures also beat fists estimates, while Italian and Spanish figures were revised lower. The dollar is benefiting from easing risk aversion, as stocks trade in the green across Europe, although a cautious mode persists ahead of the release of the US Nonfarm Payroll report.

03.02.2017 12:56:48

EUR/USD Forecast: bullish, but break above 1.0840 needed

The EUR/USD holds on to its Trump-triggered gains, after the new administration down talked the greenback earlier this week. The FOMC meeting did little for the local currency, as policy-makers maintained an on-hold stance, leaving the fed funds target unchanged at 0.5%-0.75%, and refrained from providing any clues on further rate hikes.

02.02.2017 11:56:49

EUR/USD Forecast: neutral, waiting for a trigger

The EUR/USD pair continues trading uneventfully around the 1.0700 level, although the greenback is softer after London's opening. Multiple Central Banks' decisions alongside with the US Nonfarm Payroll report release this Friday keeps investors in wait-and-see mode, alongside with the huge uncertainty surrounding the new US administration. It has been a week since Trump took over the office, and there was not a single day without a surprise announcement that affected the financial world.

31.01.2017 11:49:58

EUR/USD Forecast: risking a downward extension

The American dollar gapped lower against most of its major rivals at the weekly opening, although there was no specific catalyst for dollar's weakness, beyond new controversial measures announced by the new administration, with bans to migrants and attacks in the Middle East. The dollar's negative tone however, reversed mid Asian session, with the currency entering positive territory against most major rivals after London's opening.

30.01.2017 11:48:04