The EUR/USD pair remains stuck around 1.1200, with markets mixed ahead of Central Banks' meetings, starting with the US Federal Reserve this Wednesday. The Fed is largely expected to raise rates by 25 bps, but there's a lot of uncertainty over what will happen next with rate after that, given softening data ever since the year started.
The common currency trades in the upper end of this year's range against the greenback, barely retreating from the 1.1280 region, re-tested late Tuesday. Speculative interest is just waiting for first-tier events that would take place this Thursday, including an ECB monetary policy meeting. UK elections will also take place tomorrow, and could opaque in part Draghi's announcement, at least short term. Anyway, the overall risk remains towards the upside, with the greenback at fresh multi-week lows against the JPY, the AUD, and even gold.
The GBP/USD pair trades uneventfully around the 1.2900 figure, although the Pound started the week with a sour tone, hit by another terror attack in London and a new poll showing that PM May's Conservative party continues losing its advantage against Labour rivals. Voters favoring conservatives are 42%, while those backing the Labour party represent 38%, according to a YouGov poll just released. The pair bounced from a daily low of 1.2855, but pared gains after the release of the May Markit Services PMI, down to 53.8 in the month from previous 56.8.
The EUR/USD pair retreated modestly from the 2017 high set last Friday at 1.1284 at the weekly opening, but holds around 1.1260 in a quiet European morning, with half Europe on holidays amid Whit Monday. The release of final Markit services and composite PMIs in the region showed that economic growth expanded at its fastest rate in six years in May. The EU services PMI came in a 56.3 from an initial estimate of 56.2, while the composite PMI was confirmed at 56.8.
Pound plunged to the base of its last four-week's range against the greenback, with the pair printing 1.2857 so far today and trading a handful of pips above it. Oil's decline has affected the UK currency but the sell-off came following a YouGov poll showing that PM Theresa May is losing support, having accumulate a 5 points loss in the past two weeks. Soft macroeconomic data released in the UK this Thursday also dented confidence towards the GBP.
Majors have been quite active during the past two sessions, although the EUR/USD pair was unable to attract interest. An early decline was contained by buyers around 1.1180, advancing early Europe as the greenback retains its weak tone, advancing only when a rival gets sold. Local share markets are under pressure, as OPEC's disappointing announcement hit risk-appetite, boosting demand for safe-havens' gold and yen.
The GBP/USD pair advanced up to 1.2940, but bulls lost the grip and the pair retreats from the level, despite tepid US data just released. Nevertheless, the pair holds above the 1.2900 level, favored by broad dollar's weakness and ahead of PM Theresa May live Q&A event later today. The UK leader will participate in a Facebook event in where voters could ask her questions ahead of the election early June. Investors are on hold now when it comes to the pair, waiting for some clues over the upcoming Brexit, although seems unlikely she could add something new. From a technical point of view, the 4 hours chart presents a neutral stance, as the price has recovered above an anyway bearish 20 SMA, whilst the Momentum indicator pared gains around its 100 level and the RSI indicator turned lower around 52, lacking enough strength to suggest a downward moves. Former highs in the 1.2880/90 region come as the immediate support, while multiple highs around 1.2950/60 are the resistance to beat to support an upward extension towards the critical 1.3000 figure.
The dollar eased modestly overnight, but the EUR/USD pair remained contained by selling interest around 1.0900, unable to recover the key threshold. Chinese better-than-expected inflation figures backed an advance in the JPY and the Aussie, weighing on the greenback. The European session, brought some minor releases in Italy and Greece, but attention is centered in ECB's Draghi, who will speak about the impact of monetary policy at the Dutch House of Representatives ahead of Wall Street's opening.
Despite of the market friendly result from the first round of French Presidential election, the EUR/USD pair failed to build on weekly bullish gap and settled below the 1.0900 handle. With markets now pricing-in Emmanuel Macron's victory in the run-off on May 7, a fresh wave of greenback selling interest helped the pair to regain some fresh traction on Tuesday.
Near-term action remains unchanged and holding within 1.2770/1.2859 consolidation range under last week's fresh multi-month high at 1.2904. Strong support has formed at 1.2770 (consolidation range floor, also former high of 06 Dec) where repeated downside attempts were contained. The downside is reinforced by 1.2755 (Friday's spike low/Fibo 38.2% of 1.2513/1.2904 upleg), however, risk of deeper pullback remains in play as slow stochastic is turning down on daily chart, after reversing from overbought territory.
The EUR/USD pair witnessed a bullish gap opening on Monday surged to the highest level since Nov. 11 as investors welcomed Emmanuel Macron emerged as a winned of the first round of French Presidential election. Centrist Emmanuel Macron qualified for a May 7 run-off alongside the second-place finisher, far-right leader Marine Le Pen. Having scaled multi-month tops, decisively beyond the very important 200-day SMA, the pair pared some of its strong gains and retreated around 100-pips from highs.
The EUR/USD pair once gained some fresh traction near the very important 1.0600 support area and traded with positive bias at the start of a new week. After a lackluster start, the pair caught some fresh bids amid some renewed weakness surrounding the greenback, in wake of Friday's disappointing US macro data - monthly retail sales and the latest CPI print. Adding to this, rising tensions between the US and N. Korea continues to weigh on the buck and supported the Euro's funding currency status, helping the pair to continue defending the year-to-date ascending trend-line support.
The EUR/USD pair struggled to register any meaningful recovery from one month low touched during early Aisna session and continued trading with mild negative bias below the 1.0600 handle through early European session on Monday.
The GBP/USD pair fall sub-1.2500 following the release of the UK Markit manufacturing PMI for March, which came in at 54.2, a four months low, against February's 56.2 and the expected 55.1. Still, the number indicates that the UK manufacturing sector remained solid at the end of the first quarter, according to the official releases, although the rate of expansion slowed. The GBP/USD pair eased to a daily low of 1.2491 after the news, hovering now around the 1.2500 figure.
The GBP/USD pair peaked at 1.2515 earlier in the day, retreating modestly below the 1.2500 threshold, ahead of the release of the UK Retail Sales figures. Data beat expectations, and the upward surprise boosted the Pound. Sales surged by 1.4% in February and when compared with the previous month, while year-on-year sales surged by 3.7%. Excluding fuel, sales also surged, by 1.3% and 4.1% monthly and yearly basis respectively. January figures suffered downward revisions.
Following a quiet Asian session, the greenback gains some ground against its major rivals, underpinned by news coming from the UK, as the Pound fell following news showing that the UK Government will trigger the Brexit next March 29th. The macroeconomic calendar has remained extremely light at the beginning of the week, with only Germany releasing its February PPI data, in line with expectations monthly basis, and up year-on-year to 3.1% from previous 2.4%. There's not much ahead after Wall Street's opening, except for a speech from Fed's Evans mid US afternoon, and another from US President Trump early Asia.
In the latest Brexit development, the House of Commons turned down the amendments passed by the House of Lords and passed the Brexit bill, allowing the UK PM Theresa May to trigger Article 50 and formally begin the process of ending the country’s association with the European Union. Meanwhile, Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon confirmed that she would ask for permission to hold a second independence referendum.
Investors are favoring the greenback this Tuesday, as poor data coming from Australia and the UK Parliament granting PM May permission to trigger the Brexit with no amendments, weighed on high-yielding assets. The EUR/USD pair, however, remains reluctant to ease much, holding around the 1.0630 region, a previous strong resistance, and now support.
Majors saw little action overnight, as the first of the two events that will set the tone for currencies looms. The European Central Bank is having is monetary policy meeting this Thursday, and the Central Bank is not expected to introduce changes to the ongoing policy, but as usual, hopes are on Draghi's speech. The market is expecting for a more optimistic stance from policy makers, and for upgrade in growth and inflation forecasts amid the latest macroeconomic releases in the EU that indicate a healthy recovery since late 2016.
The EUR/USD maintains the positive momentum seen late Friday, after Fed's Yellen pretty much confirmed a rate hike for this March. The pair extended its advance up to 1.0639, a fresh 3-week high, although there's no follow-through and the pair hovers around the 1.0620/30 region. Local share markets are trading with a downbeat tone, helping the common currency to advance.
The EUR/USD pair trades marginally higher this Monday, but with little upward momentum and within a limited range, as a scarce macroeconomic calendar kept majors limited during the Asian session. Things will get more interesting mid European morning, as the EU will release its confidence figures for February, while ahead of the Wall Street opening, the US will release Durable Goods Orders for January, and later, some minor housing and manufacturing figures.