Commodity currencies are the best performers so far today, with the pair finally breaking higher and reaching 0.8881 fresh 3-weeks high. The 1 hour chart shows a strong upward momentum coming from technical readings, with 20 SMA now converging with the strong support at 0.8820. In the 4 hours chart indicators turned strongly bullish with some follow through above 0.8900 pointing for a test of the 38.2% retracement of its latest bearish run at 0.8930.
The USD/JPY erased most of its intraday gains, retracing from the 108.20 price zone, but for the most confined to its latest range: The 1 hour chart shows price contained in between the 50% and the 61.8% retracements of the latest bearish run, with 100 SMA offering short term support a few pips below current price. In the 4 hours chart indicators head lower around their midlines, lacking strength at the time being: a break through 107.55 is required to confirm a new leg lower, eyeing in the short term 107.10 price zone.
The GBP/USD accelerated through the daily descendant trend line at 1.6145 with the news, printing 1.6179 before a shallow retracement, now suggesting more gains ahead moreover if upcoming US data also misses expectations. Short term, the hourly chart shows price extending above its 20 SMA and RSI heading strongly up above its midline, while the 4 hours chart also presents a bullish bias, with 200 EMA at 1.6190 acting as immediate resistance and the level to break to confirm more intraday gains in the pair.
US Durable Goods Orders finally give European currencies a reason to move, accelerating higher against the greenback on the back of a quite weak number of -1.3% against the 0.5% expected. Having been confined to tight ranges, dollar selloff seems larger than it actually easy on a first glance, yet its weakness is undeniable. Consumer confidence in the US is up next, and if the number also disappoints, then the rallies may become much more significant ahead of FED meeting tomorrow.
The AUD/USD trades uneventfully between 0.8770 and 0.8820 as usual, having tested the upper band of the range several times since the day started, yet still unable to break trough. The 1 hour chart shows indicators turning lower but in neutral territory, while 20 SMA lost its bullish slope, now flat around 0.8800. In the 4 hours chart the picture remains neutral and if something, falling stocks won’t help the pair break through the critical resistance.
The USD/JPY trades slightly lower alongside with stocks, with indexes in the US pointing for a strong slide and European ones accelerating south. Technically, the 1 hour chart shows indicators heading south below their midlines, while 100 SMA maintains a strong bullish slope in the 107.50/60 area, acting as immediate support. In the 4 hours chart indicators turned south but remain above their midlines, while price struggles with both 100 and 200 SMAs around current price, giving no much directional clues.
The GBP/USD advances slowly this Monday, approaching 1.6125 static resistance level, that already contained advances earlier on the day. The 1 hour chart shows 20 SMA containing the downside, flat around 1.6070, while indicators show little aims to move in neutral territory. In the 4 hours chart indicators gain bullish slope above their midlines, while price extends above its 20 SMA, supporting some further gains for the day: a break above the level should lead to an advance up to 1.6160, a daily descendant trend line coming from 1.7090.
The EUR/USD trades a few pips above its weekly opening having been trading in a quite limited range so far today. With a daily high at 1.2713, the hourly chart presents a very limited positive tone, with price hovering around a bullish 20 SMA but indicators steady in neutral territory. In the 4 hours chart 20 SMA offered intraday support at 1.2665 while indicators lose upward potential above their midlines, showing the lack of interest, either side of the board in the pair at this point. With a hurdle of US data in less than an hour, levels to watch are 1.2650/60 to the downside and 1.2710 to the upside, as some follow through either side of such range is required to confirm some further directional strength.
Australian dollar accelerates higher against the greenback, nearing critical 0.8820 early US session, and with the short term picture showing a stronger upward momentum than in any other high yielder. Despite the short term strength however, the pair remains within range and as long as below mentioned level, chances to the upside remain limited. A break through it on the other hand, should lead to a firmer advance up to 0.8850/60 yet if the level holds, a quick retracement to 0.8770 is then likely.
The USD/JPY consolidates its latest gains around the 108.00 figure having found short term buying interest around 107.80 price zone. The 1 hour chart shows 100 SMA advanced further above 200 one, both well below current price, while indicators corrected overbought readings, now aiming back higher around their midlines but not confirming an upward continuation. In the 4 hours chart indicators hold in positive territory but lost the bullish strength and turn slowly south supporting some limited downward correction.
Pound saw some demand after the release of firm GDP readings for last quarter in the UK which sent GBP/USD up to 1.6071, so far the daily high. The 1 hour chart shows a mild positive tone, but a strong resistance level at mentioned high, the 38.2% retracement of the latest daily bullish run. In the 4 hours chart 20 SMA presents a strong bearish slope and stands also in the 1.6070 level, while indicators head higher still below their midlines: price needs then to advance beyond mentioned high to be able to extend its intraday gains up to the 1.6225 strong static resistance level.
Dollar is under mild pressure across the board, with the EUR/USD breaking its 30 pips range to the upside on news EU draft doc says 25 banks have shown a capital shortfall in the ECB stress tests. Slightly above expected, the pair lost 30 pips right after the news, but jumped quickly afterwards, as the news seem to have bring some relief over the economic situation in the EZ. Market players have been on hold for most of the day, as the results of the test are expected to be released on Sunday, and with FED meeting next Wednesday, cautious stance imposed.
The range continues to shrink in the AUD/USD, with the pair showing no progress this Thursday: still trades in the upper half of its wider range, hovering around the magnet area around 0.8770. Technically, both 1 and 4 hours charts present a neutral stance, with a very limited bearish bias. Nevertheless, only a price acceleration below 0.8730 should signal some downward potential in the pair, while the upside remains limited as long as 0.8820 holds.
The USD/JYP has been triggering short term stops to the upside ever since early Europe, accelerating through 107.35 first on good European news supporting stocks advances, and once more above 107.60 after positive US data. The pair has therefore set a short term intraday trend, with the 1 hour chart showing 100 SMA crossing above 200 one and indicators heading higher in positive territory. In the 4 hours chart technical readings also present a positive tone, with next resistance now at the 108.00 figure: a break above won’t see much resistance until the 108.50 price zone.
The GBP/USD bounces some after falling to 1.5998 on the back of weak UK Retail sales figures, maintaining a pretty negative short term tone according to the 1 hour chart: indicators aim slightly higher below their midlines, but 20 SMA caps the upside with it strong bearish slope. In the 4 hours chart, technical readings present a strong bearish bias, with the pair quoting around the 50% retracement of its latest bullish run. The 61.8% retracement of the same rally stands at 1.5995, meaning a break below it should lead to further falls with an initial target at 1.5940/50.
The EUR/USD retraces from a daily high of 1.2676, reached after mild positives Manufacturing and Services PMIs coming from Europe. But the greenback sees some demand after the release of weekly unemployment data in the US, with Initial claims above expected, but Continuing claims posted their best number since the ends of 2000, pointing to a steady recovery in the employment sector. As for the EUR/USD, the technical picture shows the pair remains unable to firm up above the 1.2660 static resistance level, but price stands above a flat 20 SMA and indicators in positive territory, so far limiting slides.
The AUD/USD continues with nothing to offer to intraday traders, confined to a tight range after a short lived slide to 0.8743 following the release of mild weak Australian inflation past Asian session. Current dollar momentum however, sees the pair testing 0.8770 support and indicators in the 1 hour chart with a mild bearish tone, yet overall neutral due to the tight range seen lately. In the 4 hours chart the neutral stance also prevails, and it will take a slide below 0.8730 to confirm a steadier decline for the upcoming hours.
The USD/JPY finally woke up, accelerating higher early US session, and nearing recent highs in the 107.35 price zone, immediate resistance. The 1 hour chart shows price extending above moving averages, as indicators also head higher above their midlines; in the 4 hours chart however, indicators remain in neutral territory, showing no directional strength at the time being. Nevertheless, a break above afore mentioned highs, should lead to a continued advance towards 107.60/70 price zone.
BOE Minutes expressing concerns over European slowdown stalling UK growth sent GBP/USD to a daily low of 1.6011, before a shallow bounce. Price however was unable to extend above the 38.2% retracement of the latest bullish run around 1.6065, and regained the downside on US positive news: the 1 hour chart shows price developing below a bearish 20 SMA, while indicators resumed the downside after partially correcting oversold readings. In the 4 hours chart technical readings also present a strong bearish momentum, with critical support now at 1.5995, 61.8% retracement of the same rally: a break below should anticipate a downward acceleration, eyeing 1.5950 as next probable bearish target in the short term.
Not a good day for EUR: adding to early weakness due to market rumors on failing banks over the test the ECB is leading and will release next October 26th, US inflation came out better than expected, with both monthly and yearly readings ticking higher. The EUR/USD trades at a fresh 5 day low near 1.2660 static support, with the 20 SMA presenting a strong bearish slope above current price and capping the upside now in the 1.2710 price zone. Indicators stand in negative territory, with RSI pressuring 70 and momentum still not reflecting latest slide. In the 4 hours chart technical readings present a strong bearish tone, which supports further declines on a break below mentioned support.
Aussie surged over Asian hours, helped by a better than expected Chinese GDP reading, and a not that dovish RBA Minutes. The AUD/USD however, stalled at the Fibonacci resistance of 0.8820, and despite pressuring the level the pair refuses to advance beyond it. The 1 hour chart shows 20 SMA offering short term intraday support now around 0.8890, while indicators lack strength yet stand above their midlines. In the 4 hours chart technical reading also present a mild positive tone, yet unless a clear acceleration above current levels, the upside remains limited.