The USD/JPY finally woke up, accelerating higher early US session, and nearing recent highs in the 107.35 price zone, immediate resistance. The 1 hour chart shows price extending above moving averages, as indicators also head higher above their midlines; in the 4 hours chart however, indicators remain in neutral territory, showing no directional strength at the time being. Nevertheless, a break above afore mentioned highs, should lead to a continued advance towards 107.60/70 price zone.
BOE Minutes expressing concerns over European slowdown stalling UK growth sent GBP/USD to a daily low of 1.6011, before a shallow bounce. Price however was unable to extend above the 38.2% retracement of the latest bullish run around 1.6065, and regained the downside on US positive news: the 1 hour chart shows price developing below a bearish 20 SMA, while indicators resumed the downside after partially correcting oversold readings. In the 4 hours chart technical readings also present a strong bearish momentum, with critical support now at 1.5995, 61.8% retracement of the same rally: a break below should anticipate a downward acceleration, eyeing 1.5950 as next probable bearish target in the short term.
Not a good day for EUR: adding to early weakness due to market rumors on failing banks over the test the ECB is leading and will release next October 26th, US inflation came out better than expected, with both monthly and yearly readings ticking higher. The EUR/USD trades at a fresh 5 day low near 1.2660 static support, with the 20 SMA presenting a strong bearish slope above current price and capping the upside now in the 1.2710 price zone. Indicators stand in negative territory, with RSI pressuring 70 and momentum still not reflecting latest slide. In the 4 hours chart technical readings present a strong bearish tone, which supports further declines on a break below mentioned support.
Aussie surged over Asian hours, helped by a better than expected Chinese GDP reading, and a not that dovish RBA Minutes. The AUD/USD however, stalled at the Fibonacci resistance of 0.8820, and despite pressuring the level the pair refuses to advance beyond it. The 1 hour chart shows 20 SMA offering short term intraday support now around 0.8890, while indicators lack strength yet stand above their midlines. In the 4 hours chart technical reading also present a mild positive tone, yet unless a clear acceleration above current levels, the upside remains limited.
Slightly lower, the USD/JPY has shown little progress over the last couple sessions, albeit a lower low has been set at 106.24 pointing for some dominant bearish sentiment in the pair. The 1 hour chart shows price in between moving averages, with 100 one offering now support around 106.50; indicators in the same chart head lower below their midlines yet show no actual strength. In the 4 hours chart indicators turn lower around their midlines, also lacking directional strength at the time being.
Pound maintains its strength against the greenback, having suffered a short term downward spike on EUR slide. The GBP/USD consolidates near its daily high of 1.6184, immediate resistance, with the 1 hour chart showing price trying to advance above its 20 SMA and indicators turning higher in neutral territory, showing no momentum at the time being. In the 4 hours chart price stands above its 20 SMA with momentum diverging lower yet still above its midline, this last limiting chances of a stronger slide. A break above the daily high may favor further gains towards 1.6220/30 price zone, whilst a break below 1.6125 will put the pair on the bearish path.
The EUR/USD was submitted to a short term selloff, following news the ECB will be buying corporate bonds for troubled economies such as Spain and Italy, down to 1.2745 on the day. But following the initial headline from a big news agency, another round of non supported news hit the wires stating the Central Bank has not yet put the issue of buying corporate bonds on the agenda for its December policy meeting. With the back and forth, the pair managed to recover some ground, yet stalled at 1.2780 price zone, limited by the critical Fibonacci level around which the pair has been hovering most of this week.
AUD/USD range stretched further, with the pair showing no directional strength in the short term. The hourly chart shows price above flat moving averages, and indicators horizontal in neutral territory, while the 4 hours chart shows indicators present a mild bearish tone but the neutral tone also prevails. As commented on previous updates, 0.8820 is the key resistance to overcome, while short term support stands at 0.8730 now.
The USD/JPY lost the early day upward momentum over European hours, having advanced up to 107.38 before easing back. The 1 hour chart shows price heading lower between 100 and 200 SMAs, with the shortest offering intraday support at 106.60 and indicators heading lower below their midlines. In the 4 hours chart indicators turned south still above their midlines, while moving averages remain well above current price.
The GBP/USD trades at its daily high after finally breaching above 1.6125, level that contained the upside for most of these last 2 weeks. The hourly chart shows an increasing upward potential in the short term, as price holds above a bullish 20 SMA and indicator aim higher above their midlines. In the 4 hours chart technical indicators head higher in positive territory, while 20 SMA also accelerates north below current price, now offering short term support around 1.6060; as long as mentioned 1.6125 attracts buyers, the upside is favored with 1.6185 as next target once the daily high gives up.
Dollar is under mild pressure across the board ahead of US opening, after FED’s Fisher hit the wires saying he doesn't see any reason not to curtail QE at October meeting, weighting on stocks: futures are again in the red, pointing for a negative opening. Technically the EUR/USD hourly chart shows price pressuring the daily high, also static Fibonacci resistance at 1.2780, as per being the 23.6% retracement of the 1.37/1.25 bearish run. Price stands above moving averages, while indicators had barely overcome their midlines, remaining directionless. In the 4 hours chart the technical picture is mixed, with a strong bearish momentum opposing a rising RSI and a bullish 20 SMA. Some follow through above 1.2790 should indicate further intraday gains towards 1.2845 price zone, while bears will take control only on a break below 1.2700.
GBP/USD extended its corrective move beyond 1.6100 Friday also supported by the positive mood. However, short-term technical indicators are losing steam also pointing for some consolidation. Cable needs a decisive break above 1.6125 (Oct 13 & 17 highs) to confirm short-term recovery and pave the way to 1.6165 (21-day SMA) en-route toward 1.6225 (Oct 9 peak). On the flip side, a break below 1.6025 may risk another test of 1.5900 and 1.5873 (cycle low).
Risk sentiment has been supportive for EUR/USD Friday, with European stocks recovering ground and pressures on periphery bonds easing. However, EUR/USD trades little changed heading into the American session after the latest recovery attempt was capped by the 1.2840 area. Technically speaking, short-term charts look constructive although early strength is fading, suggesting the pair may enter a consolidation phase. EUR/USD needs a clear break above 1.2880 to confirm an upward move, targeting the 1.2960 area. On the other hand, loss of 1.2700/10 10- and 20-day SMAs cross could open the way for test of the 1.2620/00 zone.
Australian dollar heads towards the base of its latest range against the greenback, hovering above the 0.8700 level early US session. Despite the back and forth, the pair has been pretty limited between Fibonacci levels for most of the last 2 weeks between 0.8640 and 0.8820, with minor spikes above this last being quickly diluted. The 1 hour chart shows price below a bearish 20 SMA and indicators flat near oversold levels, while the 4 hours chart presents a strong bearish momentum, but 20 SMA maintaining a neutral stance.
The USD/JPY remains under pressure, having been as high as 106.32 on the day. The short term technical picture has not changed, with 100 and 200 SMAs extending their bearish slopes well above current price and indicators regaining the downside below their midlines. In the 4 hours chart indicators lost bearish potential in oversold levels with no signs of changing course anytime soon.
The GBP/USD pressures its daily highs in the 1.6020 price zone, presenting a mild positive tone in the 1 hour chart, with indicators aiming higher around their midlines, and 20 SMA maintaining its bullish slope below current price. In the 4 hours chart indicators had been unable to recoup above their midlines, but had erased all of their oversold readings reached late last week, while 20 SMA maintains a bearish slope. A daily descendant trend line coming from 1.6523 stands today at 1.6115 and it will take a steady advance above it to confirm an interim bottom in the pair.
Dollar got a boost mid European session, as risk aversion was triggered once again: European share markets opened with a mild positive tone, yet rising Greek yields, back to crisis level near 7%, send them strongly down ahead of US opening. High yielders suffered the most, with EUR and GBP losing most of their latest gains and leaving the EUR/USD again below the critical Fibonacci level at 1.2780. First round of US data shows jobless unemployment claims fell to a 14 year low bringing some relief across the different boards; nevertheless, American indexes point to open with strong losses, meaning once more, panic will lead currencies.
Aussie was also benefited by dollar weakness, resurging up to 0.8785 so far today and with the pair advancing above it’s 20 SMA in the hourly chart and indicators heading strongly up above their midlines. In the 4 hours chart technical readings are also heading higher in positive territory, with 0.8820 as the critical resistance level to watch as per being the 23.6% retracement of the latest daily fall.
With dollar weakness and stocks nose diving yen is on the run approaching 106.00 figure against is American rival, and with a strong downward momentum short term, as per indicators approaching almost vertically to oversold levels and after 100 SMA capped the upside on early attempts of advancing. In the 4 hours chart technical readings are also biased lower, supporting the shorter term view and pointing for a steady decline towards 105.70, September 5th daily high.
The GBP/USD resurged with US weakness, having been unable to react earlier on the day to UK employment figures, slightly better than expected. Half way of yesterday’s losses, the pair trades above former low of 1.5950 now immediate support, with the hourly chart showing price extending above its 20 SMA and indicators aiming higher above their midlines, supporting some further gains. In the 4 hours chart however, there’s a long road ahead before technical readings can give a bullish signal, with a bearish 20 SMA capping the upside in the 1.6020 price zone.
The EUR/USD broke its range to the upside after US data release: the October Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business activity grew well below expected, printing 6.2 from a previous 27.5, Retail Sales decreased more than forecasted printing negative readings, and PPI readings also slumped. The EUR/USD advanced up to 1.2757 so far, and holds above the 1.2700 level early US session, with the 1 hour chart showing price well above moving averages that hold in a tight range and lacking direction due to recent range. Indicators aim higher crossing their midlines to the upside, while the 4 hours chart presents a mild positive tone, with not much strength at the time being. Current rally can extend up to recent highs around 1.2790, yet it will take some steady gains above this last to see actual movement as something more than a correction in the middle of a bearish trend.