Weekly review from December 3 to 9

09.12.2018 10:24:55

This week was unhappy for cryptocurrencies except for Bitcoin SV and USDT. Other crypto coins intensified their decline, showing new lows on Friday. During the week the crypto coins losses ranged from 7% to 40%. Consequently, the price decline affected the market capitalization which counted $106 billion on Friday. As coinmarketcap states, over the month, the market capitalization lost more than $100 billion.

Bitcoin Cash descended below $100 for the first time. Thanks to the growth, Bitcoin SV became the fifth largest cryptocurrency in the world. As it was said, only Bitcoin SV and Tether could show growth this week.  

Why Bitcoin Falls Again

The previous decline of Bitcoin price was observed in September 2017. This time the decline below $3400 signaled that a larger decline to $3000 is possible. Because of the low Bitcoin price its mining became almost a non-profit. Some sited state that Bitcoin mining has peaked in October, but has dropped by 24% to this day. The chart shows the change in Bitcoin difficulty.

The fall in prices resulted a large number of Bitcoin miners have temporarily suspended their activities.

Cryptocurrency forecast for the next week

It makes no sense to say that we can see a recovery next week. The crypto market is still controlled by the speculative traders, cause the short trades to dominate on the market. We can just expect small upward consolidation at the beginning of the week, before new lows after profit taking by the speculative traders.
It seems that bears are unstoppable. Bitcoin showed almost 50% decline over the month. Consequently, investors are getting nervous and sell Bitcoin.

Bitcoin forecast

For a long time bears control the market. Bulls have never been seen since the breakdown of $6000. However, there are some factors saying the bulls will come back soon.

On Friday Bitcoin dropped below $3400 but bulls seem to be waiting for this fall. They wait for the Bitcoin price in the range of $3200 to $2800. This range gives a strong support. Previously, it was an area with strong resistance, but the bulls broke it in August 2017 and retested in September 2017. Then attempt to descend to $3000 was immediately rejected. As the result, we got the strongest Bitcoin rally which led it to around $20000.

So, according to market cycles, we can consider the range of $3200 - $2800 as a level of parabolic support. This is an area where the demand can actively grow and the bulls start active buying.

Our words about the high-demand area can be confirmed by the technical indicators showing the oversold zone. RSI is in the oversold zone on the daily and weekly chart. As soon as Bitcoin drops to the $3200-$2800 range RSI is likely to show strongly oversold.

The trading volume also shows the decline, which indicates the sellers are getting tired. So we expect the market will rebind as soon as the price reaches the bullish territory, and buyers enter the game.

As soon as Bitcoin reaches our lower target, we will have a merger of three factors: decline to support area, the signals of indicators, and the tired sellers.

Of course, it doesn’t mean an immediate reversal of the market and the new rally. But it is likely the Bitcoin movement in the range of $3000 to $6000.

Ethereum forecast

Finally, the launch date of hard fork Constantinople was agreed. The team leader at Ethereum, Peter Siladzhi, confirmed it his Twitter. He tweeted: "Ethereum Constantinople hard fork is scheduled for block No.7080000, tentatively January 16, 2019!"

On Friday, ETH/USD managed to restore lost positions, but this is not enough to restore the weekly loss. ETH/USD tried to bounce back and return above the psychological $100, but without success.

$100 is a real psychological mark now, so after reaching it, Ethereum will stumble upon a new barrier. Finally, if the price resumes recovery it will be unexpectedly for the bulls. On the contrary, it is possible to retest the weak low on December 7th.

At the weekly and monthly ETH/USD charts, the nearest support level is not observed at all. This may mean the return of the cryptocurrency to $65 area.