Bitcoin price prediction 2020
Bitcoin is still the king of coins in the cryptocurrency digital currency industry. Is in the first place and has never been displaced by other big cryptocurrencies.
In its history Bitcoin has provided high gain for early investors when they bought Bitcoin at a low price until finally the highest Bitcoin value in 2017 was $ 20,000.
Bitcoin predictions in 2020 are still a lot of investors who put their hopes up with the increase in the value of Bitcoin, including John Mc Afee, Tom Lee, Osato Avan-Nomayo, and Fran Strajnar.
They have different predictions, but overall still bet that the value of Bitcoin could still increase again.
Can Bitcoin compete in the feud?
At the beginning of the concept, Bitcoin was created to replace conventional currencies by implementing Blockchain technology which is a new way of making money transfers.
But in its development, Bitcoin still has to compete in the feud, this is because many countries accuse Bitcoin is not a currency, the US Dollar does not want to lose its legitimacy, the Chinese yuan does not want Bitcoin to replace it.
Currently, the currency is in stiff competition to be at the forefront.
Look at China with the digital Yuan that has tried to go beyond the US Dollar with the concept of money transfer without using the internet but based on the device to device.
Even today, many US dollars are still used as a standard currency conversion in various countries.
While Bitcoin is a new technology that still requires comprehensive socialization throughout the world.
Doing flashbacks past Richard Nixon's 1971 finance minister, saying, "It's our currency, but that's your problem,"
Then four decades of dollar weakness sparked a large-scale currency war. This allows China and America to cause Bitcoin losses.
Bitcoin has not been able to be adopted as a means of payment.
But for some investors, the perception of Bitcoin is a store of value or an asset entering in times of crisis.
ROI Bitcoin past 6 years
Analyzing Bitcoin's ROI over the past 6 years, the pattern has emerged as a signal on seasonal cycles.
The ROI of Bitcoin investment is cyclical, with high returns in the short term.
For example, investing $ 1000 worth of Bitcoin in a market cycle will give different results to one investor or another.
So that between one investor and another there is an ROI of five times, or even hundreds of times the initial investment.
This condition can be caused by seasonal cycles in which Bitcoin traders do not have the same abilities, and the form of trading is not always sustainable.
So that the ROI can vary the results following the existing pattern.
However, a simple analysis with SMA 14 shows Bitcoin ROI from 2017-2020 is likely to increase which can be referred to as an "impulse year".
Source Chart studio
On closer inspection, the graph of the ROI and price volatility of Bitcoin often differs from one year to the next.
This can be caused by several factors, for example, Defi's explosive growth news is believed to have pushed prices up in 2020.
Based on data from Skew, which reports Bitcoin Quarterly Return in%, it shows that in 2020 in the 1st quarter it was minus 10.58%, then the 2nd quarter was 42.3%, and in the 3rd quarter, it was 16.77%.
In 2018 Bitcoin provided the worst ROI after the Bubble when Bitcoin's value surged in 2017.
The results of the quarterly ROI report released by Skew do not reflect the currency correlation. because this is a market cycle.
The reports from year to year are not always the same, and if one condition can cause the Bitcoin price to increase in the short term, it does not mean that it shows sustainable growth.
Because these conditions are often seasonal, for example after the bitcoin halving, it can push prices up, but that is not a guarantee that it will always go up.
Meanwhile, the Gold vs Bitcoin chart often forms a similar pattern, where at the beginning of the graph the value of Bitcoin was higher than gold, but on August 7, 2020, the value of gold managed to surpass Bitcoin with a high of $ 2.1k and Bitcoin was at $ 12k.
But the chart didn't last long, and the line shows the value fluctuated again, and the gold price fell back down to the $ 1.9k level.
Bitcoin price prediction 2020
The keyword Bitcoin price prediction is one of the searches for Bitcoin fans after the halving last May.
Various kinds of predictions came from several experts in the financial world, such as Bloomberg, who was optimistic that the post-2013 market pattern would repeat itself similar to the current pattern.
Flashback to 2013, bitcoin hit a high of $ 1,100 in early December 2013 and fell more than 55% the following year.
2015, the price went up by $ 700, then after hitting a record high of $ 20,000 in mid-December 2017, bitcoin fell 75% in 2018. Then it was around $ 3,100 in December 2018 and rose again by 90% the following year.
Then Bitcoin was at the highest price above $ 10,000 in early May 2020.
With bitcoin tending to move in this long-term cycle, will the 2020 Bitcoin prediction that Bloomberg expects to reach $ 20,000 be realized?
How to predict Bitcoin price based Stock to Flow
The Stock-to-Flow (StF) model is a popular method for predicting the Bitcoin price.
This method is applied in predicting the price of Bitcoin because there is a Reward Halving, this makes the Stock to Flow analysis model able to measure the level of scarcity.
As Bitcoin becomes scarce, and demand increases, the price will rise.
The Stock to Flow score consists of two main variables,
Availability of Bitcoin
Its production rate (flow) for one year.
Availability is the total amount of Bitcoin in circulation. Meanwhile, the production rate is how many Bitcoins are produced in one year.
The stock number is then divided by the Bitcoin flow number.
Let's say the current total of Bitcoin is 18,220,337 BTC. Meanwhile, the flow during the year is 657,000 BTC. Then the StF score is 18,220,337 / 657,000 = 27.7.Its score Stock to Flow.
After the Halving last May, Bitcoin in circulation was around 18,375,000 BTC. with the production rate of Bitcoin is 6.25 BTC per block or about 900 BTC per day, then the production for one year is 328,500 BTC.
Then the Sock to Flow Bitcoin score after the halving is 18,375,000 / 328,500 = 55.9.
Citing from digitalik.net Bitcoin is predicted by Stock to Flow analysis will surpass its all-time high, on October 25, 2020, at the level of US $ 20,826.
The Stock-to-Flow model does seem very scientific. Bitcoin is also relatively easy to predict because its rarity is certain, as a result of the standard rules of the Bitcoin system.
However, the prediction will return to market sentiment in the future. If demand increases, of course, there will be an increase in price.
Bitcoin price short term analysis 28 September 2020
Bitcoin price movement remains steady, although it tends to slowly increase, until this report is written the increase is only 0.8% from the market opening today.
Even though on Friday there were transactions totaling more than $ 1 billion.
But the fact that it happens that the issue of expiration is just a smokescreen. What happens is the opposite of the anticipated crash on CME, with Open Interest and Volume remaining consistent.
According to Skew's data report, there is a contract worth $ 7 billion that expired last month on August 28, 2020. The contract got Open Interest down by 32% in just under a week.
When the recovery was not finished, the value on the spot market fell by 10%.
However, Bitcoin's price has gone up by $ 400 since September 24. The expiration contract has no negative impact on the price.
According to the report, the 5000 BTC transaction was transferred outside the exchange to an unknown wallet after the event expired in three transactions.
While some institutional investors have fallen 7-8% in overall value, since their last purchase.
Bitcoin 1H in Overbought level zone
Bitcoin price had spiked at $ 10952, but it wasn't enough to make the price even higher, it has bounced back forming a flag pattern.
There is a crucial point at $ 10576 which becomes the first support, if a break in this area occurs then the movement is expected to reach the Support level two at $ 10317.
Based on the MACD analysis of the indicator, it is marked by a short histogram pattern which indicates that on the 1H time frame the movement is sideways.
Meanwhile, the MACD Line signal has crossed the MACD line from top to bottom, this is a sell signal based on short-term trading assumptions.
MACD histogram value is minus 9, which is a negative value which means the trend on the 1H time frame is bearish.
Turning to the RSI indicator, currently, the RSI value is 64.5, for which the RSI line has previously reached the level 73, which is overbought.
Based on short-term technical analysis, sell options can be done based on the confirmation of the two indicators MACD and RSI.
While a biasing bullish is seen on the 4H timeframe with resistance zone 1 at $ 11176, the volume is still too weak to push prices up to this resistance.
There is a signal difference between 1H and 4H, where on 4H the MACD histogram shows that bulls dominate the long-term swing movement.
Traders may be quite uncertain about these conditions, but to overcome this, traders may make decisions concerning long-term movements, this allows reducing the risk factors that may occur.
Bitcoin's market cap at the time of writing was $201,087,217,785. With an increase of 0.71%.
The value of Bitcoin has contracted last March with a sharp decline occurring in this cryptocurrency. However, this was then greeted by encouragement from investors, which significantly boosted the uptrend.
Although Bitcoin has had to clash with the flat dollar USD currency and the Chinese digital yuan, the crypto market has its fans consisting of leading financial institutions.
Moving in a shadow market it is still possible that future Bitcoin growth will increase again.
Disclaimer, this is not an investment suggestion or advice, you are investing at your own risk.