Aussie finds favor in recovering stocks and gold daily gains, with the AUD/USD trading at its daily highs and presenting a strong upward momentum in the 1 hour chart, as per indicators heading north above their midlines, and price accelerating well above its 20 SMA. In the 4 hours chart, price is now attempting to break above a flat 20 SMA while indicators diverge from each other in negative territory. Current gains can extend up to 0.8820, 23.6% retracement of these last months’ slide. But it will take firm gains above it to consider latest gains more than a temporal upward correction.
Having established a daily low of 107.05, the USD/JPY attempts a shy recovery early US session, with the pair adding some pips above 107.30 immediate support yet far from presenting a strong upward momentum according to the hourly chart: moving averages maintain strong bearish slopes well above current price while indicators stalled their advance right below their midlines. In the 4 hours chart indicators are losing their upward potential well below their midlines, which continues to favor the downside, on a break below mentioned daily low.
The GBP/USD trades around the 23.6% retracement of the latest daily bearish run, unable to set a clear direction either side of it. Despite a daily high of 1.6126, the pair has been unable to sustain gains beyond current price zone, and the 1 hour chart shows price hovering around its 20 SMA while indicators hold near their midlines, leaving a short term neutral tone. In the 4 hours chart however, the bearish tone prevails with 20 SMA containing the upside around mentioned high and indicators heading lower below their midlines.
The EUR/USD trades higher in range, contained by 1.2700 early US session, with futures having erased all of its early weekly losses and opening around last Friday’s close. With no data to backup currencies’ movements, risk sentiment takes the lead, with easing concerns putting dollar under mild selling pressure. The EUR/USD hourly chart shows price above a bullish 20 SMA but indicators turning lower above their midlines, as gains remain limited. In the 4 hours chart price hovers around a flat 20 SMA as momentum continues to head south in negative territory, limiting chances of a firmer advance. A firmer advance beyond 1.2700 may see the pair approaching 1.2745, while risk to the downside will increase on a break below 1.2660 support now.
The USD/JPY trades in a tight range between 107.50 and 108.20 since early Thursday, maintaining a bearish bias in the wider view albeit neutral in the short term according to the 1 hour chart: indicators lack direction, hovering around their midlines, but moving averages maintain their strong bearish slopes well above current price. In the 4 hours chart indicators show no clear directional strength but hold below their midlines, supporting the overall negative tone.
The GBP/USD decline starting early Europe extends early US session, with the pair around its daily low of 1.6021. The 1 hour presents a clear bearish bias with indicators heading south into negative territory and 20 SMA with a strong bearish slope well above current price. In the 4 hours chart technical readings also support a continued decline, with some follow through below 1.6000 probably fueling the selloff towards this month low of 1.5951.
The EUR/USD is back on the bearish track having hit a daily low of 1.2620 on the back of ongoing risk aversion mood: stocks are strongly down in Europe, while US futures extended to fresh lows below September ones before bouncing back some. The EUR/USD hourly chart shows price back below its moving averages, with 20 SMA presenting a strong bearish slope above current price and indicators accelerating south into negative territory. In the 4 hours chart price extends below a flat 20 SMA while indicators are crossing their midlines to the downside with a clear bearish slope, supporting further declines on a break below mentioned low.
Aussie also sheds gains early US session against the greenback, having stalled a couple pips below the 0.8900 figure. The 1 hour chart shows an increasing bearish potential, with price below its 20 SMA and indicators turning south above their midlines and about to break them. In the 4 hours chart indicators retrace from overbought territory, yet remain far from suggesting a bearish continuation at the time being: risk will increase on a break below 0.8810, 23.6% retracement of the latest daily bearish run.
The USD/JPY surges from fresh 3-week low of 107.52, still holding below the 108.00 level and with the 1 hour chart showing price well below moving averages and indicators aiming higher still below their midlines. In the 4 hours chart however, indicators maintain a bearish bias, with a new slide below 107.60 probably anticipating fresh lows near the 107.00 price zone.
The GBP/USD advanced to a fresh weekly high of 1.6226 before current retracement, with the 1 hour chart showing price approaching immediate support of 1.6170, and indicators losing upward potential above their midlines. In the 4 hours chart the positive tone prevails in technical readings, albeit a break above 1.6235, 50% retracement of the latest daily bearish run, is required to confirm further daily gains, eyeing then an approach to 1.6300 price zone.
The EUR/USD retraces from a daily high of 1.2790, having extended its pullback ahead of US session after better than expected US weekly unemployment claims. The 1 hour chart shows price extending below a bullish 20 SMA while indicators approached their midlines, still holding above it. In the 4 hours chart, indicators retrace a bit from overbought levels, but 20 SMA maintains a strong bullish slope, offering intraday support at 1.2660. Some follow through above 1.2780 Fibonacci resistance is required to confirm further gains while a continued slide below 1.2700/10 will put bears back in control, at least in the short term.
The AUD/USD struggles to regain the 0.8800 figure, having been as low as 0.8751 so far today. The hourly chart shows price below its 20 SMA and indicators in negative territory, albeit showing no bearish strength at the time being. In the 4 hours chart indicators retrace from oversold levels, while 20 SMA stands flat below current price, giving no clear directional signs. A break below 0.8740 support is required to see the pair returning to the downside, while above 0.8850 the bias is higher towards 0.8890.
The USD/JPY maintains the heavy tone, pressuring the 108.00 figure. So far, the pair has found short term buyers on dips below the level, but lower highs suggest decreasing buying interest around. The 1 hour chart shows moving averages well above current price with the distance between 100 and 200 SMA widening further both above current price and the shortest below the largest, which tends to suggest increasing bearish pressure. Indicators in the same time frame, turned south but at the time being lack momentum, while the 4 hours chart shows indicators near oversold levels diverging from each other. Critical support stands at 107.60/70 area and once below, the pair is exposed to a continued slide, eyeing sub 107.00 levels then.
The GBP/USD holds steady below 1.6100, hovering around the 23.6% retracement of its latest bearish run, maintaining a quite neutral technical stance in the short term: the 1 hour chart shows price moving back and forth around a flat 20 SMA while indicators hover around their midlines. In the 4 hours chart 20 SMA begins to turn flat below current price, in the 1.6030 price zone, while indicators head higher above their midlines: as yesterday, some steady gains above the 1.6110 price zone are required to confirm some further gains for today.
Investors hold their breath ahead of FOMC Minutes later on the day, with the greenback still under pressure, but within familiar ranges across the board. Furthermore, stocks are leading again the way, with dollar following indexes move higher and lower for most of the European session. Market will be looking in Minutes for any tip on upcoming rate moves, but worth mentioning the meeting has been before latest employment data, which may leave it outdated. As for the EUR/USD, the short term picture presents a mild bullish tone, with price struggling to hold above its 20 SMA but momentum aiming to break below 100. In the 4 hours chart indicators maintain a clear positive tone near as 20 SMA stands flat around 1.2630 acting as immediate intraday support. A break above 1.2700 is required to confirm further gains, eyeing then a test of 1.2780 price zone, 23.6% retracement of the latest bearish run.
Having to face RBA later this week, the AUD/USD trades near the fresh year low posted last week of 0.8642. Recovery attempts had remained limited by 0.8680 price zone, immediate short term resistance, followed by the 0.8740 price zone. Technically, the 1 hour chart shows a strongly bearish 20 SMA standing above current price and indicators in oversold territory, while the 4 hours chart shows indicators heading lower below their midlines, and 20 SMA slowly gaining some bearish slope, suggesting the pair is breaking previous days’ range to the downside. A fresh low below mentioned 0.8640 should see a quick test of 0.8600 while a break below this last exposes the 0.8500 figure for the upcoming days.
The USD/JPY regained its north late last week, trading a few pips below the 110.00 figure and the year high of 110.08. The pair dipped down to 108.00 on tumbling stocks last Thursday, but the move was just enough to attract more buyers, as the COT report shows USD longs against the Japanese currency grew again, as well as EUR shorts. Technically, the 1 hour chart shows indicators easing some from overbought territory still not suggesting some downward correction, while price stands again above both 100 and 200 SMAs that slowly turn higher below current price. In the 4 hours chart indicators present a clear upward momentum heading higher above their midlines, with plenty room to go, suggesting a break above 110.10 should see the pair advancing further over the upcoming days.
The GBP/USD trades below the 1.6000 figure, steady near past week lows, weighted not only by dollar strength, but on comments coming from BOE members delaying a rate hike in the UK. The technical picture in the short term is bearish with the 1 hour indicators correcting partially the extreme oversold readings reached on Friday. Some consolidation in price below the 1.6000 figure can be expected as indicators correct higher, yet if the level holds, the downside is exposed towards 1.5853 November 2013 monthly low during the upcoming sessions. In the 4 hours chart the technical picture is also of oversold readings, yet most critical technical readings is the weekly candle opening below 200 SMA around the critical 1.6000 figure, first since September 2013. As long as below the level, the downside is favored towards 1.5910 first, in route to mentioned 1.5850 price zone.
The EUR/JPY consolidates below the 61.8% retracement of its latest bullish run around 137.90, maintaining the bearish bias despite the limited follow though seen last Friday, amid equal weakness in both currencies against the greenback. The 1 hour chart shows indicators heading slightly lower below their midlines, with 100 SMA maintaining a strong bearish slope above current price, converging with the mentioned Fibonacci retracement. In the 4 hours chart technical readings also head south below their midlines, albeit showing little momentum at the time being. A downward acceleration below 136.90 however, should fuel the slide eyeing then September lows around 135.80.
Dollar starts the week maintaining the positive tone seen after Fridays’ strong employment figures, forcing those looking for a due correction to capitulate. The EUR/USD has been on the selling side pretty much since July, accumulating 12 weeks of losses and leaving the weekly RSI at 15, something that does not seem to bother investors, still positioned short. With a holiday in Australia, market is thinner than usual at the opening, with most majors stuck in 10 pips ranges. China is also on holiday today, leaving the calendar pretty empty from market movers and delaying action probably towards European opening.
The GBP/USD trades at fresh weekly highs right below 1.6400, having seen an early knee jerk down to 1.6302 from where the pair bounced quite nicely, suggesting buyers may be ready to rebuild their long positions. Fundamental news were quite discouraging, with Mortgage approvals down 1.2K from previous month, and Public Sector Net Borrowing well above an already high expected number.