تحلیل ها

اخبار فارکس

Forex

UK 4Q GDP revised upwards - ING

11:23 31 March /2016 Forex

James Smith, Economist at ING, notes that the UK fourth quarter GDP was revised up to 0.6% QoQ, but the focus now is on the economic impact of the Brexit vote over the coming quarters.

Key Quotes

œThe final estimate of UK fourth quarter GDP surprised on the upside, with an upgrade to 0.6% QoQ from 0.5% previously. The underlying details paint a picture of an economy that continues to be driven by consumption, whilst business investment appeared to suffer (gross fixed capital formation fell by 1.1% QoQ). For us though, what is more important now is how the economy has performed in the first quarter and indeed how it evolves over the coming months, with the forthcoming vote on EU membership drawing closer.

With considerable uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the vote, it is possible that businesses temporarily hold off on hiring/investment plans until the result is clearer. Whilst it is probably too early to be seeing evidence of this in the œhard data (ie GDP, industrial production etc), the question now is to what degree the uncertainty surrounding the outcome is affecting business/consumer confidence.

We will get a bit more clarity on this from the UK PMIs (manuf. on Friday and services next week). The consensus is looking for a slight pickup, after a large decline last month “ the assumption presumably being that market turmoil/global growth concerns were largely to blame, which have since died down to some degree. A sub-consensus figure would reflect the fact that the Brexit story has come into sharper focus, with arguably more political noise since the last survey in February.

If the UK votes to remain in the EU, our base case is that, conditional on the dataflow post-referendum, the Bank of England could raise interest rates as early as November. However, if the UK votes to leave, then there is a possibility that the BoE cuts rates to pre-empt any potential economic volatility.

to other news

all news
NZ: Expect 0.3% q/q headline CPI result for the December 2016 quarter - ANZ

Phil Borkin, Senior Economist at ANZ, expects a 0.3% q/q headline CPI result for the December 2016 quarter (released 26th January) of NZ, which is a touch above the RBNZ’s November MPS pick (0.2%).Key Quotes“Annual inflation is forecast to lift to 1.2% – back in the RBNZ’s target ba

08:46 18 January /2017 Forex

UK inflation jumps to 1.6% - Natixis

Sylwia Hubar, Research Analyst at Natixis, notes that the UK inflation jumped to 1.6% in December boosted by rises in air fares and lower declines in prices for food and motor fuels than a year ago.Key Quotes“The inflation increased in part as producers have been passing upturns in

08:46 18 January /2017 Forex

EUR/JPY capped below 121 handle ahead of CPIs

The EUR/JPY cross clings onto recovery gains so far this session, having halted two back-to-back sessions of losses amid a rebound staged by USD/JPY.EUR/JPY firmer on USD/JPY pullbackThe EUR/JPY pair now gains +0.20% to trade at 12

08:23 18 January /2017 Forex