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Risk aversion: Invisible but it isn’t dead - Westpac

Sean Callow, Research Analyst at Westpac, suggests that the main revelation for markets in the past week is that risk aversion may have been almost invisible since November but it isn’t dead.Key Quotes“AUD/USD reached 0.7750 on Tuesday, its highest level since 9 November, just ahead of the US election surprise. Less than 24 hours later, the pair was testing 0.7640, a one week low....

09:23 23 March /2017 Forex

Inflation: Impact has been visible globally – Lloyds Bank Sandeep Kanihama

Research Team at Lloyds Bank points out that the impact on inflation trends has been visible globally. Key Quotes“Following a benign start to the year, Brent crude oil prices turned down in early March, falling below $51. Sentiment was driven lower by signs that US crude oil stocks have been accumulating more quickly than typical seasonal builds and that the resolve of major produ...

09:23 23 March /2017 Forex

AUD/JPY confined in tight range below 85.50

The AUD/JPY cross is back on the 85 handle amid re-emergence of risk-on trades, although the recovery remains capped by 85.50 barrier, as cautiousness still persists ahead of the Trump’s Healthcare bill vote by the House of Representatives.The risk barometer, AUD/JPY, remains in a wait-and-see mode so far this session,...

09:00 23 March /2017 Forex

ECB is considering tweaking its forward guidance on interest rates – Lloyds Bank Sandeep Kanihama

According to the analysts at Lloyds Bank, there were indications in its recent meet that the ECB is considering tweaking its forward guidance on interest rates which currently states that rates will be kept at “current or lower” levels for an extended period and “well past” the end of QE.Key Quotes“The ECB left policy unchanged on 9 March, as expected, and reiterated that it will ...

09:00 23 March /2017 Forex

USD bears the brunt of Trump’s credibility gap – AmpGFX

Greg Gibbs, Director at Amplifying Global FX Capital, points out that doubts over Trump’s capacity to provide leadership for the Republican-controlled Congress have been creeping into the market fueled by lingering allegations his campaign had links to Russia and its efforts to influence the USA 2016 election, and Trump’s shrill bombastic style including wild claims of wire-taps. Key Quote...

08:46 23 March /2017 Forex

NZD/USD: Re-attempts 0.7050 post-RBNZ jawboning

The Kiwi is on a gradual recovery path from post-RBNZ decision-induced slide to 0.7025 levels, in the wake of a rebound in the Asian equities and oil prices amid risk reset.NZD/USD back near 5-DMA at 0.7042NZD/USD is seen attempting gains in early Europe, having made a solid comeback over the last hours, as 08:23 23 March /2017 Forex

Taiwan's premier Lin Chuan announces a $29 billion stimulus package

Reuters reporting latest headlines, citing that Taiwan's premier Lin Chuan has announced a $29 billion stimulus package, but still parliament approval is awaited.Key Headlines:It is still to get parliamentary approvalSpending spread over 8 yearsPackage is expected to focus on infrastructure"China has been upgrading its supply chains. President Trump is also asking...

08:23 23 March /2017 Forex

US: Trumpflation cracks - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura explain that the benign risk environment has been shaken by US political and fiscal uncertainty and while the decline in global equities has been minor in a historical context, it illustrates the vulnerability to a potential re-evaluation of the Trumpflation trade.Key Quotes“The key upcoming test will be the House vote on the American Health Care Act (AHCA; Thur...

08:23 23 March /2017 Forex

RBNZ: Uncertainty dominates rate stagnation – BNZ Sandeep Kanihama

Stephen Toplis, Head of Research at BNZ, notes that the RBNZ did its very best to produce an identical statement to its February Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) when releasing its OCR review today.Key Quotes“However, as we had anticipated, it was forced to comment on the fact that GDP was surprisingly low in Q4 and that the upcoming CPI will likely surprise to the upside. It actua...

08:23 23 March /2017 Forex

Fed: Baseline policy rate expectation is for two further rate rises this year to 1.5% - Lloyds Bank Sandeep Kanihama

Research Team at Lloyds Bank suggests that their baseline Fed policy rate expectation is for two further rate rises this year to 1.5% (previously 1.25%) and three hikes in 2018 to 2.25% (previously two hikes to 1.75%).Key Quotes“We have nudged up our 10-year Treasury yield forecasts by 10bps to 2.8% at end-2017 and 3.1% at end-2018.”“The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC...

08:23 23 March /2017 Forex

Fed economists’ study warns of future episodes of ultra-low rates - FT Dhwani Mehta

The Financial Times (FT) reports about a study to be presented at the Brookings Papers conference this week by two Federal Reserve Board economists, which warns that the global central banks will be stuck in an era of near-zero levels in the future.Key Points:Suggests policymakers should allow prices to rise by around 3% annually during periods of high economic growthSo the long-r...

08:00 23 March /2017 Forex

US: Existing home sales for February were weaker than expected - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura note that the US existing home sales declined 3.7% m-o-m in February to an annual rate of 5.48mn (Nomura: -1.8%, Consensus: -2.5%) as the months supply increased to 3.8 from 3.5 (implying that it would now take 3.8 months to work off the inventories), but the improvement in this indicator may be due to a decline in sales.Key Quotes“Low supply in the affordable p...

07:46 23 March /2017 Forex

RBNZ: Neutral is as neutral does - ANZ

Research Team at ANZ explains that as expected, the RBNZ maintained a clear neutral tone at its OCR Review today, holding the OCR at 1.75% and the statement was broadly unchanged from the one delivered in February where changes were made (in response to some recent data surprises), comments were heavily caveated, with surprises discounted.Key Quotes“This reinforces that the RBNZ c...

07:46 23 March /2017 Forex

RBNZ: No fireworks offered - Westpac Sandeep Kanihama

Imre Speizer, Research Analyst at Westpac, explains that the RBNZ’s OCR Review this morning kept the OCR on hold at 1.75%, retained a neutral bias, and repeated the message that the OCR is likely to remain on hold for a long time.Key Quotes“All of this was widely expected. Accordingly, there was little market reaction.”“The key policy guidance paragraph stated: “Monetary polic...

07:46 23 March /2017 Forex

Goldman Sachs on China credit crunch

According to a research note from Goldman Sachs, the Chinese economy is on the verge of a credit crunch, in the wake of China’s 7-day repo rate hitting its highest level since late 2014 earlier this week.Goldman Sachs economists believe persistently higher rates could create problems for Chinese...

07:23 23 March /2017 Forex

Oil can drop to $ 40 - Nomura Dhwani Mehta

In the view of analysts at Nomura, oil prices can drop further to $ 40/ barrel, in the wake of a failure to extend the OPEC output cut agreement beyond June.Key Reasons for the drop:If OPEC fails to extend its production cutsAnd global growth momentum faltersWhile global oil inventories remain elevated  

07:00 23 March /2017 Forex

EUR/USD: Weaker below 1.0800 amid broad USD rebound

After having failed just ahead of 1.0820 region for the second straight session, the EUR/USD pair remains on the offers in the Asian hours, now looking to extend its reversal below yesterday’s low reached at 1.0776 levels.The spot extends its overnight retreat as a minor-recovery staged by the Wall Street fuelled a rebound in the treasury yields,...

06:46 23 March /2017 Forex

US Senate Democratic leader Schumer on Trumpcare bill vote

Reuters coming out with the latest update on the Trumpcare bill, as the wrangling continues ahead of the vote later today.US Senate Democratic leader Schumer noted a repeal of essential health benefits under Obamacare, "almost certainly'' cannot pass the senate under the budget reconciliation rul...

06:23 23 March /2017 Forex

EUR/GBP clocks 2-1/2 week low ahead of UK retail sales data

EUR/GBP clocked a 2-1/2 week low of 0.8636 ahead of the data release in the UK, which is expected to show retail sales ticked up in February. Rejected at 0.87 handleThe cross failed to take out 0.87 levels on Wednesday and fell to a low of 0.8643 levels. The losses are being extended in Asia largely due to the weakness in the EUR/USD pair. UK re...

06:23 23 March /2017 Forex

French election poll: Macron 65% to Le Pen's 35% in run off Dhwani Mehta

The latest outcome of the Harris Poll revealed on Thursday that Macron leads the second round of the French presidential election race, leaving Le Pen behind by a big margin.Key Details via Reuters:Round 1 Macron 26%, Le Pen 25%2nd round (the decisive round)  Macron 65% Le Pen 35% 

06:23 23 March /2017 Forex