Forex forecast

EUR/USD Forecast: at risk of falling further

The EUR/USD pair suffered the consequences of renewed Brexit fears, triggered by a week-end headline which suggested that Theresa May will need to resign the EU Single Market in order to obtain full borders' control. The American dollar gapped higher against most of its major rivals, exception made by the JPY that also appreciated sharply alongside with safe-haven gold. The EUR/USD pair gapped lower, but for just 40 pips. The pair quickly closed the gap, but remains under pressure early Europe, with London opening pushing it to a daily low of 1.0579.

16.01.2017 11:54:17

EUR/USD Forecast: modestly bullish, US Retail Sales awaited

The EUR/USD pair holds on to its weekly gains early Friday, having met short term buying interest around 1.0600 on a pullback during Asian trading hours. Overnight, Chinese trade figures showed signs of slowing growth, as December's surplus reached $40.82 billion, versus $44.61 billion in the previous month, whilst exports plunged 6.1%, against an expected advance of 0.1%. Imports rose by 3.1%, beating expectations of 2.7%, but below a previously revised 4.7%. As for the ongoing European session, there's no data to take care of, leaving investors focused in the upcoming US Retail Sales and PPI December data. Sales in the US are expected to have advanced by 0.7% against previous 0.1%, while factory inflation is also expected to have advance. The figures may restore partially confidence in the USD, but at this point, the dollar remains vulnerable.

13.01.2017 12:14:33

EUR/USD Forecast: heading towards 1.0710

Dollar's sell-off triggered by Trump's press conference extends this Thursday, with the EUR/USD surpassing the 1.0650 level, the high set last December 29th. The macroeconomic calendar has been light so far, although the EU will release its November Industrial Production figures expected above October's results, while later in the US, focus will be in  weekly unemployment claims and FED's speakers, including Evans and Harker.

12.01.2017 12:25:41

EUR/USD Forecast: modestly bullish, 1.0650 still caps

The EUR/USD pair advanced in quiet Asian trading, with the dollar still pressured short-term across the board against all of its major rivals, but the Pound. Markets' mood improved with the release of Chinese inflation figures, as despite the headline CPI rose below expected, core inflation rose beyond expectations, while factory gates price gained to their highest since September 2011, printing 5.5% in December.

10.01.2017 12:40:00

EUR/USD: stocks leading the way

The EUR/USD pair shows little life of its own this Monday, confined to a tight 50 pips range. A holiday in Japan kept most major pairs range-bound at the beginning of the day, with the exception of the Pound, hammered by UK's PM May comments on Brexit. Data released during the European session was centered in Germany, with Industrial Production up by 0.4% in November, below the expected 0.7%, and by 2.2%  YoY. November's trade balance printed a surplus of €21.7B, better than the €20.8B expected, with monthly imports up by 3.5% and exports by 3.9%. In the US session a minor report, the Labor Market Conditions Index for December, and a couple of FED's speakers will gather all of the attention.

09.01.2017 17:33:43

EUR/USD: aiming for fresh record lows

The EUR/USD pair fell below the 1.0400 level as dollar's demand resumed following the long year-end holidays.

03.01.2017 17:34:34

EUR/USD Forecast: modest bullish tone in thin trading

Beyond a rally in gold prices, action is extremely limited in the financial boards, with major pairs trading around Friday's closing levels. The EUR/USD pair hovers within 25 pips in the 1.0440/50 region, with the European macroeconomic calendar empty this Tuesday, doing little to help the market move.

27.12.2016 12:01:50

EUR/USD Forecast: waiting for US data

The EUR/USD pair holds near its weekly high of 1.0454 posted achieved overnight, but still trading within a quite limited range alongside with all major pairs, amid winter holidays. There were no major releases so far today, with investors' attention centered in upcoming US data, as the country will release the final revision of the QE GDP, Durable Goods Orders, and Personal Consumption figures, among others. Disappointing figures can be a good excuse to take some profits out of  the table, and put the greenback under pressure across the board.

22.12.2016 11:55:12

EUR/USD Forecast: bearish, despite the quiet holiday's consolidation

Holiday's mood is on in full force, with trading volume plunging, but the dollar holding on to gains anyway. The EUR/USD pair failed to regain the 1.0400 level in an extremely quiet Asian session, with selling interest around 1.0410/20 steadily rejecting advances, but that's it. The pair traded within a 40 pips range, and will likely remain range bound during the upcoming days, with volume shrinking further during the rest of the week and the next one.

21.12.2016 15:21:03

EUR/USD Forecast: poised to extend its decline to fresh multi-year lows

The EUR/USD pair trades back below the 1.0400 level, with the dollar getting a boost from an on-hold BOJ which helped the USD/JPY recover some 100 pips overnight. Some positive figures coming from  Germany couldn't help the pair, as in the November the index of producer prices for industrial products rose by 0.3% monthly basis, and by  0.1% compared when compared to the corresponding month of the preceding year. This was the first positive annual rate of change since June 2013, although at the worst possible time, with the market embarked in dollar's buying. The EU current account for October came in at €28.4B better-than-expected and above an upwardly revised €27.7B in September.

20.12.2016 11:49:40

EUR/USD Forecast: quiet consolidation, dollar still strong

The week started quietly, with the greenback trading marginally lower against its major rivals, but not far from Friday's closing levels. The EUR/USD pair advanced up to 1.0479 early Europe, before settling around 1.0460 ahead of the release of the German IFO survey which came in better-than-expected. December figures beat not only previous month's readings, but also expectations, as Business Climate surged to 111.0 from previous 110.4. The assessment of the current situation improved to 116.6, while expectations advanced up to 105.6.

19.12.2016 12:31:37

EUR/USD Forecast: fresher lows at sight on strong US CPI

The EUR/USD pair traded at fresh yearly lows of 1.0468 this Thursday, level reached during the past Asian session, amid continued dollar's strength after FED's hawkish announcement. Yesterday, the US Central Bank offered the exact dose of hawkishness the market needed to resume dollar's buying, with slight upward revisions to growth and inflation forecast, but with three possible rate hikes for 2017, against previous forecast of two, somehow indicating that the FED is also foreseeing a faster pace of economic improvement.

15.12.2016 12:42:56

EUR/USD Forecast: ready, set… hike?

The EUR/USD pair continues trading flat a handful of pips above the 1.0600 level, having saw little action overnight, as speculators are sitting on their hands, waiting for the US Federal Reserve announcement later on the American afternoon. There are many probable scenarios for today, as the FED will not only unveil rates, but also its forecasts for 2017, followed by a Yellen speech and press conference.

14.12.2016 16:02:39

EUR/USD Forecast: limited action expected ahead of FOMC

The EUR/USD pair has been trading lifeless within a 20 pips range for most of the Asian session, softer after London's opening but still holding above the 1.0600 mark, as the FED meeting looms. Following Monday's decline, the greenback is trying to recover ground particularly against the EUR and the JPY, helped by easing oil prices.

13.12.2016 13:15:53

EUR/USD Forecast: quiet day ahead with a scarce calendar

The market is all about oil and optimism this Monday, as the commodity gapped sharply higher on weekend news showing that non-OPEC countries joined forces with the OPEC and agreed to cut production. The greenback trades modestly lower across the board, although majors remain well contained ahead of the upcoming FED meeting this Wednesday, as the US Central Bank is widely expected to raise rates for the second time in ten years.

12.12.2016 13:05:13

EUR/USD Forecast: consolidation extends, waiting for NFP

The EUR/USD trades around 1.0610, unchanged daily basis and confined to a 40 pips  range ever since the day started. The release of the final revisions of the region manufacturing PMIs, showed that final EU reading came in at a 34-month high of 53.7 in November, up from 53.5 in October, unchanged from the earlier flash estimate. The German reading, however, came in at 54.3 from an initial estimate of 54.4.

01.12.2016 12:37:36

EUR/USD Forecast: calendar busy, but OPEC taking center stage

The EUR/USD pair trades marginally higher in the European morning, but has spent most of the last session range bound, as the market awaits for the US ADP employment survey and the outcome of the OPEC meeting that will take place today starting at 10:00 GMT. The dollar is under moderate selling pressure on comments from Iran oil minister, who said that Iran won't freeze output, but that there's another arrangement underway, resulting in oil prices jumping. The organism is expected to offer a statement around 16:00 GMT.

30.11.2016 12:06:24

EUR/USD Forecast: consolidating at lows, waiting for data

Markets are in quiet consolidation this Tuesday, with the EUR/USD pair hovering around the 1.0600 level. Stocks trade in the red, both Asia and Europe, maintaining the negative tone seen on Monday. The macroeconomic calendar will be more lively today, with consumer and business sentiment in the EU, German November inflation, and the second reading of the US Q3 GDP.  Later on the US afternoon, a couple of FED members will hit the wires in different speeches, although not major surprises are expected for today. In fact, is probable that the market will wait for Friday's NFP report to take firmer positions.

29.11.2016 11:53:37

EUR/USD Forecast: correction to accelerate above 1.0700

The American dollar eases against all of its major rivals at the beginning of the week, with no major data released overnight. Denting investors' sentiment are diminishing hopes for a deal among worldwide oil producers to cut production, after Saudi Arabia announced it won't meet today with non-OPEC producers, as it wants to focus on having consensus within the organization first. US yields are down with the 10-year Treasury yield down around 5 basis points, further weighing on the greenback.

28.11.2016 12:57:12

EUR/USD Forecast: stuck around 1.0600 ahead of US data

The EUR/USD pair trades uneventfully a few pips above the 1.0600 mark this Wednesday, unaffected by positive local data. The release of the European preliminary Markit PMIs showed that growth remains solid in the region, with the EU manufacturing reading at 54.1 and the services one also at 54.1, both above expectations and final October figures, leaving the Markit Composite PMI at 53.7.French readings beat expectations, while in Germany, manufacturing ticked modestly lower but posted a strong 54.4, while the services sector is estimated to have grew, up to 55 from previous 54.2.

23.11.2016 13:45:41

EUR/USD Forecast: dollar keeps correcting, limited demand for the EUR

The EUR/USD pair trades modestly higher in another quiet London session, with the dollar affected by demand for safe-havens yen and gold during the Asian session, as an earthquake hit Japan, while a Tsunami alert was issued. Fortunately, there were no major consequences, and the alert was lifted. Also, US elected President, Donald Trump, has outlined his plans for his first 100 days in office, and announced that he intends to withdraw the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership deal, a 12-nation  trade pact aiming to liberalize the flow of goods among countries in the Pacific Rim and represents the 40% of the world's economy. Indeed, risk aversion can hit the market strongly later today.

22.11.2016 12:23:05