Forex forecast

EUR/USD Forecast: quiet consolidation in thin trading

The week starts in slow motion with the US on holidays and a scarce macroeconomic calendar. Around stocks, so far is risk-on day, with Asian equities trading modestly higher and European ones gapping higher at the opening. The EUR/USD pair is confined to a measly 30 pips range since the opening, barely above the 1.0605 low posted last Friday, despite better-than-expected PPI in Germany. In January, the index of producer prices rose 0.7% from December, and by 2.4% when compared to January 2016. The EU will release its February preliminary Consumer Confidence data, expected to have declined from -4.7 to -4.9, whilst there won't be releases coming from the US.

20.02.2017 12:56:32

GBP/USD Forecast: holding range bound below 1.2540

The Pound is outperforming its major peers against the greenback, advancing up to 1.2482 after London's opening, and trading not far below the level. The UK released its Rightmove house price index overnight, which came in better-than-expected, up by 2.0% in the month from previous 0.4%.  Still, the index is hardly a market mover, and there was no fundamental trigger for the intraday advance.

20.02.2017 12:54:44

EUR/USD Forecast: soft recovery, but still at risk of falling

The American dollar started the week firm against its major rivals, helped by a soft reading of the Japanese Q4 GDP, which sent the USD/JPY pair up to 114.16. The EUR/USD pair fell to 1.0611 during the Asian session, but bounced back ahead of London opening, trading now near a daily high of 1.0657.

13.02.2017 12:28:04

EUR/USD Forecast: bearish breakout on political woes

The dollar is back in fashion, rallying against all of its major rivals with political uncertainty weighing on European currencies. After officially lunching her bid for the French presidency, Marine Le Pen, the leader of the French far-right Front National party, promised that, if elected, her party would pull France out of the European Union, and fight radical Islam.

07.02.2017 13:59:46

EUR/USD Forecast: short term bearish

The EUR/USD pair retreats from a daily high set at the beginning of the day at 1.0790, trading near a daily low of 1.0742, with European equities under pressure, but commodity-related ones are still strong against the greenback. Germany released December Factory Orders so far today, indicating an increase of 5.2% monthly basis, the most since 2014, and of 8.1% when compared to a year before. The data is quite encouraging, as it confirms the strong economic expansion of the country suggested by previous macroeconomic releases.  The EU Sentix Investor Confidence Index for February came in at 17.4, matching expectations.

06.02.2017 13:12:04

EUR/USD Forecast: weaker ahead of the Nonfarm Payroll release

The greenback is modestly higher against the EUR, with the pair trading around 1.0745, despite another round of encouraging data coming from the EU. The final January services and composite Markit PMIs for the EU ticked higher from initial flash estimates, with the services PMI reaching 53.7 and the composite up to 54.4. German and French figures also beat fists estimates, while Italian and Spanish figures were revised lower. The dollar is benefiting from easing risk aversion, as stocks trade in the green across Europe, although a cautious mode persists ahead of the release of the US Nonfarm Payroll report.

03.02.2017 12:56:48

EUR/USD Forecast: bullish, but break above 1.0840 needed

The EUR/USD holds on to its Trump-triggered gains, after the new administration down talked the greenback earlier this week. The FOMC meeting did little for the local currency, as policy-makers maintained an on-hold stance, leaving the fed funds target unchanged at 0.5%-0.75%, and refrained from providing any clues on further rate hikes.

02.02.2017 11:56:49

EUR/USD Forecast: neutral, waiting for a trigger

The EUR/USD pair continues trading uneventfully around the 1.0700 level, although the greenback is softer after London's opening. Multiple Central Banks' decisions alongside with the US Nonfarm Payroll report release this Friday keeps investors in wait-and-see mode, alongside with the huge uncertainty surrounding the new US administration. It has been a week since Trump took over the office, and there was not a single day without a surprise announcement that affected the financial world.

31.01.2017 11:49:58

EUR/USD Forecast: risking a downward extension

The American dollar gapped lower against most of its major rivals at the weekly opening, although there was no specific catalyst for dollar's weakness, beyond new controversial measures announced by the new administration, with bans to migrants and attacks in the Middle East. The dollar's negative tone however, reversed mid Asian session, with the currency entering positive territory against most major rivals after London's opening.

30.01.2017 11:48:04

EUR/USD Forecast: bearish ahead of US critical macro figures

The EUR/USD pair stands at the lower end of its weekly range this Friday, as investors wait for the upcoming US Q4 GDP release. The American dollar recovered ground as US stocks keep rallying to record highs, indicating that confidence on growth policies coming from the new administration is back. There are some minor releases coming from Europe, but the market will focus in US figures, as the country will release several first-tier data.

27.01.2017 14:57:33

EUR/USD Forecast: still confined to a tight range

The EUR/USD pair extends its consolidative phase this Thursday, unable to leave the 1.0710/70 range set at the beginning of the week. The positive mood among investors persists, as Asian shares rose, whilst European ones extended their Wednesday advances to fresh multi-year highs. Data coming from EUR continued to be supportive, as German´s CFK Consumer confidence survey is up to 10.2 for February, from 9.9 in January.

26.01.2017 12:17:27

EUR/USD Forecast: scope to advance up to 1.0840

The EUR/USD pair extended its advance up to 1.0771 early Asia, but pulled back from the level, easing towards the 1.0730 region early London, overall maintaining the positive tone. Data coming from Europe was mixed, as according to preliminary Markit PMIs, the services sector grew at a slower-than-expected pace at the beginning of 2017. Still, in Germany, manufacturing is estimated to have grew by 56.5 against previous 55.6, with the composite output is estimated at 54.7 for the month. In the EU, the services PMI index came in at 53.6, its lowest in 3 months, whilst the manufacturing one rose to 55.1, its highest in 69 months.

24.01.2017 11:53:52

EUR/USD Forecast: bullish, beware of strong resistance at 1.0770

The greenback is under strong selling pressure this Monday, extending the negative momentum triggered by Donald Trump's inaugural speech. The absence of clear comments regarding taxes or investment measures, alongside with strong protectionism wording, are behind this dollar's decline. The macroeconomic calendar will remain light this Monday, with the most relevant release being the EU consumer confidence for January later on the day.

23.01.2017 14:18:58

EUR/USD Forecast: bearish only below 1.0620

The EUR/USD pair recovered ground and advanced up to 1.0693 early Asia, meeting selling interest near the top of the weekly range. London opening brought some dollar demand, although the common currency refuses to ease, and the retracement from the mentioned high remains shallow, as the price stands in its comfort zone around the 1.0650 level. There was no relevant data released in the EU, with only German PPI figures for December, which matched expectations, out. Later in the US, focus will be on Trump's inauguration, although his not expected to say something that could actually affect financial boards, at least, not today.

20.01.2017 13:25:10

EUR/USD Forecast: positive tone persists as market's mood improve

The EUR/USD pair trades around the 1.0700 level, having spent most of the Asian session consolidating around it, contained below the 38.2% retracement of the post-US election decline at 1.0710. Stocks trade modestly higher in Asia and Europe, indicating easing risk aversion, although the greenback remains under pressure against most of its major rivals, far from regaining the bullish strength seen late 2016.

18.01.2017 12:13:33

EUR/USD Forecast: at risk of falling further

The EUR/USD pair suffered the consequences of renewed Brexit fears, triggered by a week-end headline which suggested that Theresa May will need to resign the EU Single Market in order to obtain full borders' control. The American dollar gapped higher against most of its major rivals, exception made by the JPY that also appreciated sharply alongside with safe-haven gold. The EUR/USD pair gapped lower, but for just 40 pips. The pair quickly closed the gap, but remains under pressure early Europe, with London opening pushing it to a daily low of 1.0579.

16.01.2017 11:54:17

EUR/USD Forecast: modestly bullish, US Retail Sales awaited

The EUR/USD pair holds on to its weekly gains early Friday, having met short term buying interest around 1.0600 on a pullback during Asian trading hours. Overnight, Chinese trade figures showed signs of slowing growth, as December's surplus reached $40.82 billion, versus $44.61 billion in the previous month, whilst exports plunged 6.1%, against an expected advance of 0.1%. Imports rose by 3.1%, beating expectations of 2.7%, but below a previously revised 4.7%. As for the ongoing European session, there's no data to take care of, leaving investors focused in the upcoming US Retail Sales and PPI December data. Sales in the US are expected to have advanced by 0.7% against previous 0.1%, while factory inflation is also expected to have advance. The figures may restore partially confidence in the USD, but at this point, the dollar remains vulnerable.

13.01.2017 12:14:33

EUR/USD Forecast: heading towards 1.0710

Dollar's sell-off triggered by Trump's press conference extends this Thursday, with the EUR/USD surpassing the 1.0650 level, the high set last December 29th. The macroeconomic calendar has been light so far, although the EU will release its November Industrial Production figures expected above October's results, while later in the US, focus will be in  weekly unemployment claims and FED's speakers, including Evans and Harker.

12.01.2017 12:25:41

EUR/USD Forecast: modestly bullish, 1.0650 still caps

The EUR/USD pair advanced in quiet Asian trading, with the dollar still pressured short-term across the board against all of its major rivals, but the Pound. Markets' mood improved with the release of Chinese inflation figures, as despite the headline CPI rose below expected, core inflation rose beyond expectations, while factory gates price gained to their highest since September 2011, printing 5.5% in December.

10.01.2017 12:40:00

EUR/USD: stocks leading the way

The EUR/USD pair shows little life of its own this Monday, confined to a tight 50 pips range. A holiday in Japan kept most major pairs range-bound at the beginning of the day, with the exception of the Pound, hammered by UK's PM May comments on Brexit. Data released during the European session was centered in Germany, with Industrial Production up by 0.4% in November, below the expected 0.7%, and by 2.2%  YoY. November's trade balance printed a surplus of €21.7B, better than the €20.8B expected, with monthly imports up by 3.5% and exports by 3.9%. In the US session a minor report, the Labor Market Conditions Index for December, and a couple of FED's speakers will gather all of the attention.

09.01.2017 17:33:43

EUR/USD: aiming for fresh record lows

The EUR/USD pair fell below the 1.0400 level as dollar's demand resumed following the long year-end holidays.

03.01.2017 17:34:34