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EUR/USD: pressuring highs on Draghi's words

The EUR/USD pair recovered its upward momentum after ECB's latest monetary policy announcement, as the market chose to read the positive headlines and ignore the negative ones. Having traded as low as 1.1479, the pair jumped up to 1.1573, as Draghi promised to discuss changes in guidance in the fall. Policymakers have unanimously decided so, and to keep the ongoing policy unchanged. The press conference started with Draghi saying that recent data confirmed economic strengthening and broad recovery, yet he quickly added that “very substantial accommodation is still needed." He also expressed concerns over inflation being on its way to their target, but not yet there.

20.07.2017 17:14:04

EUR/USD Forecast: aiming to correct lower, but bullish anyway

The EUR/USD pair eases from its recent highs, but remains within a limited intraday range amid a holiday in Japan and ahead of the release of EU inflation data. The greenback anyway, retains the weak tone after poor inflation and retail sales figures released last Friday cooled down the case for a tighter monetary policy in the US, trading near multi-month lows against most of its major rivals. In June, the EU CPI is expected to have remained flat, while up by 1.3% compared to a year earlier. The macroeconomic calendar has little else to offer today, with market's attention centered on the ECB's monetary policy meeting that will take place next Thursday.

17.07.2017 12:53:56

EUR/USD Forecast: holding on to gains, but no directional strength

Major pairs trade uneventfully as the week kicks in, with safe-havens' yen and gold weakness outstanding, alongside with stocks positive tone. The EUR/USD pair hovers around 1.1400, following the release of EU data, which included German's May trade balance, and the EU Sentix confidence survey. The first posted a surplus of €20.3B as expected, with exports surging 1.4% and exports up by 1.2%. The Sentix economic index for the euro area has risen for the fifth time in a row to 28.3 points, slightly below the previous and expected 28.4, weighing partially on the common currency. The US macroeconomic calendar will offer some minor reports, including June's labor market conditions index and May's consumer credit change.

10.07.2017 11:56:35

GBP/USD Forecast: bearish breakout around the corner

The British Pound remains under selling pressure, falling against the greenback down to 1.2862 so far today, its lowest for this July. There are no major news driving the market this Monday, although BOJ's Kuroda reaffirming easing will remain in place until the Central Bank achieves its 2% target has helped the greenback due to the imbalances within both central banks. The GBP came under pressure at the end of last week, as soft growth-linked data cooled down hopes for a rate hike coming from the BOE.

10.07.2017 11:55:32

EUR/USD Forecast: bullish, but waiting for US NFP

The EUR/USD pair consolidates its Thursday's gains ahead of the release of the US Nonfarm Payroll report, having extended its weekly advance by a few pips, up to 1.1427. The pair retreated modestly after UK disappointing data gave a push up to the greenback, but the overall positive tone persists, as it holds above the 1.1400 level. Minor data released at the beginning of the day was encouraging, with German Industrial Production up in May by 1.2% from the previous month and by 5.0% when compared to May 2016. The monthly core reading, excluding energy and construction was up by 1.3%.

07.07.2017 13:04:46

GBP/USD: bouncing, but short term bearish risk not over

The GBP/USD pair recovers after falling down to 1.2943, having surpassed Friday's low by a couple of pips before buyers jumped back in. The pair eased at the beginning of the day amid a recovery in the greenback that anyway looks corrective across the board, as the American currency remains near multi-week lows against most of its major rivals. Adding to Pound's decline was the release of the Markit manufacturing PMI for June, which came in at a 3-month low of 54.3, below previous 57.3. The bounce from the mentioned level suggests that longs are not yet ready to give up, although upcoming US data can give the greenback another boost in the short term. From a technical point of view, the 4 hours chart shows that the price is a handful of pips below a bullish 20 SMA, whilst technical indicators pared their declines near their mid-lines, and are currently trying to recover, not enough at this point, to suggest the pair has found a daily bottom. Renewed selling pressure below the mentioned low can see the downward corrective movement extending down to the 1.2870 region later today.

03.07.2017 15:26:25

EUR/USD: correcting lower, 1.1290 probable bearish target

The EUR/USD par trades at 1.1367 ahead of the US opening, its lowest since last Wednesday, as the dollar got the market's favor this Monday. An improvement investors' sentiment and steady US Treasury yields are helping the greenback across the board, and against the EUR, in spite of strong final local manufacturing PMIs. The EU final Markit manufacturing PMI came at 57.4 in June, above May's 57.0 and the preliminary estimate of 57.3, showing that expansion in the sector accelerated at its fastest pace in over six years. German's manufacturing PMI was also revised higher, up to 59.6, from previous estimate of 59.6. On a negative note, the EU unemployment rate came at 9.3%, above previous and expected 9.2%.

03.07.2017 15:25:37

EUR/USD Forecast: Draghi boosts the EUR, Yellen still pending

The EUR/USD pair surged up to 1.1248, surpassing last week's high, following an optimistic Draghi on the local recovery. The ECB's head added the usual "considerable degree of stimulus still needed," but said also that all signs point to a broad recovery in the Euro Area, given the market the trigger needed to wake up of its lethargy. There were no macroeconomic news in Asia to affect currencies, and the European calendar will also remain empty, with the focus on different Central Banks' authorities, with speeches from RBA´s Debelle, BOE's Carney, and Fed's Yellen outstanding today. The US has also scheduled some minor reports on manufacturing and housing.

27.06.2017 12:04:46

EUR/USD Forecast: plummeting gold drags EUR lower

The common currency retreats in the European morning after topping at 1.1207 against the greenback, unable to capitalize a stronger-than-expected German IFO survey. According to the official release, business sentiment surged to 115.1 in June from 114.6 in May, its highest since 1991. Both, the assessment of the current situation and expectations rose beyond expected, also beating previous month's readings. The dollar got an unexpected boost, as alongside with the German release, gold prices plummeted down from 1,253 to 1,236 in a matter of seconds, recovering some ground but still some $10.00 an ounce below pre-release levels.

26.06.2017 11:59:30

EUR/USD Forecast: backed by dollar's weakness, manufacturing growth

The EUR/USD pair trades above 1.1180 for the first time in four days, backed at the beginning of the day by renewed dollar's weakness across the board amid yield's weakness, now advancing on strong preliminary Markit PMIs for June. The figures, however, were mixed with manufacturing up and services down, dragging the composite reading to a five-month low for the whole region, as the situation replicated in Germany and other major economies.

23.06.2017 11:42:41

USDJPY is holding within tight range on mixed signals

The pair remains in red in early Friday's trading but holding above initial support at 111.00 (55SMA) as Thursday's long-tailed Doji signaled strong downside rejection.

23.06.2017 11:39:47

GBP/USD Forecast: short term bullish above 1.2820

The GBP/USD pair trades a few pips above the 1.2800 level, and nearing last week high of 1.2817, as the EU and Britain start formal talks to split. The idea is to set the terms on which the UK is leaving the Union, something that won't be solve in this first talks. It will a long, rough path, particularly for the kingdom, as PM May's negotiation power was weakened by the result of the latest election. Hopes that she will have to give up on her "hard-Brexit" stance, and will have to accept a softer one, backed the Pound at the beginning of last week, but as talks start, investors took a step aside.

19.06.2017 11:47:39

EUR/USD Forecast: neutral, buyers waiting for dips

The EUR/USD pair trades uneventfully around its Friday's close, with little in the macroeconomic calendar to take care of, beyond a couple of Fed speakers in the US afternoon. Focus today is on Brexit negotiations, as both parts, the EU and the UK will try to agree the steps they will take for an orderly exit of the kingdom from the Union.

19.06.2017 11:46:39

GBP/USD Forecast: At risk of falling, despite ongoing correction

The GBP/USD pair is up this Tuesday, with the Pound getting a boost from mixed inflation data. May CPI rose by 0.3% monthly basis, below previous 0.5%, but above market's expectations of 0.2%. When compared to a year earlier, inflation jumped to 2.9%, its highest since April 2012.

13.06.2017 13:25:12

EUR/USD Forecast: no sellers around, but buyers on cautious mode

The EUR/USD pair remains stuck around 1.1200, with markets mixed ahead of Central Banks' meetings, starting with the US Federal Reserve this Wednesday. The Fed is largely expected to raise rates by 25 bps, but there's a lot of uncertainty over what will happen next with rate after that, given softening data ever since the year started.

13.06.2017 13:23:36

EUR/USD Forecast: bullish, despite current wait-and-see stance

The common currency trades in the upper end of this year's range against the greenback, barely retreating from the 1.1280 region, re-tested late Tuesday. Speculative interest is just waiting for first-tier events that would take place this Thursday, including an ECB monetary policy meeting. UK elections will also take place tomorrow, and could opaque in part Draghi's announcement, at least short term. Anyway, the overall risk remains towards the upside, with the greenback at fresh multi-week lows against the JPY, the AUD, and even gold.

07.06.2017 12:06:48

GBP/USD Forecast: modestly higher on election's poll

The GBP/USD pair trades uneventfully around the 1.2900 figure, although the Pound started the week with a sour tone, hit by another terror attack in London and a new poll showing that PM May's Conservative party continues losing its advantage against Labour rivals. Voters favoring conservatives are 42%, while those backing the Labour party represent 38%, according to a YouGov poll just released. The pair bounced from a daily low of 1.2855, but pared gains after the release of the May Markit Services PMI, down to 53.8 in the month from previous 56.8.

05.06.2017 14:44:37

EUR/USD Forecast: holding on to gains, 1.1300 critical

The EUR/USD pair retreated modestly from the 2017 high set last Friday at 1.1284 at the weekly opening, but holds around 1.1260 in a quiet European morning, with half Europe on holidays amid Whit Monday. The release of final Markit services and composite PMIs in the region showed that economic growth expanded at its fastest rate in six years in May. The EU services PMI came in a 56.3 from an initial estimate of 56.2, while the composite PMI was confirmed at 56.8.

05.06.2017 14:43:42

GBP/USD Forecast: bearish, 1.2760/70 critical support

Pound plunged to the base of its last four-week's range against the greenback, with the pair printing 1.2857 so far today and trading a handful of pips above it. Oil's decline has affected the UK currency but the sell-off came following a YouGov poll showing that PM Theresa May is losing support, having accumulate a 5 points loss in the past two weeks. Soft macroeconomic data released in the UK this Thursday also dented confidence towards the GBP.

26.05.2017 12:44:56

EUR/USD Forecast: holding in range, but bulls don't give up

Majors have been quite active during the past two sessions, although the EUR/USD pair was unable to attract interest. An early decline was contained by buyers around 1.1180, advancing early Europe as the greenback retains its weak tone, advancing only when a rival gets sold. Local share markets are under pressure, as OPEC's disappointing announcement hit risk-appetite, boosting demand for safe-havens' gold and yen.

26.05.2017 12:43:42

GBP/USD: waiting for PM Theresa May

The GBP/USD pair advanced up to 1.2940, but bulls lost the grip and the pair retreats from the level, despite tepid US data just released. Nevertheless, the pair holds above the 1.2900 level, favored by broad dollar's weakness and ahead of PM Theresa May live Q&A event later today. The UK leader will participate in a Facebook event in where voters could ask her questions ahead of the election early June. Investors are on hold now when it comes to the pair, waiting for some clues over the upcoming Brexit, although seems unlikely she could add something new. From a technical point of view, the 4 hours chart presents a neutral stance, as the price has recovered above an anyway bearish 20 SMA, whilst the Momentum indicator pared gains around its 100 level and the RSI indicator turned lower around 52, lacking enough strength to suggest a downward moves. Former highs in the 1.2880/90 region come as the immediate support, while multiple highs around 1.2950/60 are the resistance to beat to support an upward extension towards the critical 1.3000 figure.

15.05.2017 16:08:08