Forex forecast

EUR/USD Forecast: Fresh lows, eyeing critical 1.3640/60

13.05.2014 16:05:52

The EUR/USD suffered another setback this Tuesday, down to fresh monthly lows of 1.3739 on the back of disappointing ZEW numbers. The survey shows that, while current situation is perceived as positive in Germany, the economic sentiment both, for the country and the Euro area turned out pretty negative, reaching its lowest levels in over a year.

The technical picture then, becomes more bearish as price has not only been capped by former support at 1.3780 since the week started, but extended lower. The 4 hours chart shows momentum still aiming higher in negative territory, RSI flat around 30 and 20 SMA with a strong bearish momentum heading south above current price. Furthermore, price continues extending below its 200 EMA currently around 1.3810, and main level to recover to deny the bearish bias. 

With immediate support in the 1.3730/40 price zone, a break below should signal a downwardcontinuation towards critical 1.3660 price zone. A break below this last should extend the downward risk in term, looking for sub 1.35 levels afterwards.

Above 1.3810 on the other hand, the downward pressure will be denied at least in the short term, with room to recover up to 1.3840/50 price zone.