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Gold consolidates overnight strong gains, around $1310 level Haresh Menghani

Gold held on to its overnight sharp recovery gains from closer to 4-week lows and was being supported by prevalent risk-off environment. On Monday, N. Korea’s foreign minister Ri Yong Ho told reporters in New York that a weekend tweet by the US President Donald Trump is counted as a declaration of war and that Pyongyang reserved the ...

09:46 26 September /2017 Forex

Oil demand may exceed supply by 2019 – Trafigura Dhwani Mehta

Reuters out with comments from an executive with commodities trading house Trafigura, noting that the global oil demand may be between 2 million to 4 million bpd more than worldwide crude supply by the end of 2019.The global oil demand is likely to outpace supply as explor...

09:46 26 September /2017 Forex

NZ: Spotlight on Winston – ANZ Sandeep Kanihama

The NZ election delivered the balance of power to NZ First on the weekend, which means both the centre right and left will be on the charm offensive over the coming weeks to form a coalition, explains the analysis team at ANZ.Key Quotes“Winston Peters has indicated a final position will be reached by the 12th October at the latest. Given National secured the largest share of the v...

09:46 26 September /2017 Forex

GBP/USD outlook shifted to neutral – UOB

FX Strategists at UOB Group have shifted Cable’s outlook to neutral from bullish in the near term.Key Quotes24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday that “the weak undertone suggests a retest of last Friday’s low near 1.3450”. The anticipated weakness exceeded our expectation by touching a low of 1.3432 before recovering. Despite the rebound, the undertone remains weak and another ...

09:23 26 September /2017 Forex

Ex-Saudi Adviser: Oil prices to rise to $60 as OPEC likely to extend cuts - RTRS Dhwani Mehta

A former Saudi Energy Ministerial official, Ibrahim al-Muhanna, said in a speech Washington late-Monday, oil prices may rise to $60 a barrel by the end of this year or by early 2018 as OPEC and non-OPEC producers are expected to extend supply cuts beyond March, Reuters reported.Key ...

09:23 26 September /2017 Forex

USD net shorts rose, GBP and JPY shorts decreased - ANZ Sandeep Kanihama

According to the CFTC positioning data for the week ending 19 September 2017, leveraged funds continued to sell the USD for the second consecutive week in the run up to the FOMC meeting, notes the analysis team at ANZ.Key Quotes“Overall net short USD positions rose by USD0.9bn to USD8.4bn. However, the CFTC cut-off date was prior to the hawkish FOMC statement on 20 September which...

09:23 26 September /2017 Forex

USD/JPY holds weaker below 112.00 handle amid risk-off mood Haresh Menghani

The greenback held weaker against its Japanese counterpart, pushing the USD/JPY pair lower for the third consecutive session.The pair extended overnight sharp retracement from an important supply zone around mid-112.00s and is currently placed near multi-day lows amid reviving safe-haven demand.    •  09:23 26 September /2017 Forex

NZ: Worse than expected trade balance figures - TDS

New Zealand’s August trade balance was worse than expected at NZ$-1.2b, but in fact is the exact same deficit as last year, notes the analysis team at TDS.Key Quotes“August is a deficit month seasonally since it is the middle of winter. Imports stronger than expected at NZ$4.92b, led by a 6.5% jump in crude oil. In addition to the weak trade balance data, September business confid...

09:00 26 September /2017 Forex

Australia: Better than forecasted Federal Budget – Westpac Sandeep Kanihama

Australia’s Federal Treasurer Morrison released the Budget Outcome for the 2016/17 financial year and the result was a little better than forecast by the Government in the May 2017 Budget, points out Andrew Hanlan, Senior Economist at Westpac.Key Quotes“The underlying cash deficit for 2016/17 came in at $33.2bn, -1.9% of GDP, some $4.4bn below the forecast of $37.6bn (-2.1% of GDP...

09:00 26 September /2017 Forex

GBP/USD clings to gains near 1.3480, Yellen eyed Pablo Piovano

The Sterling is posting moderate gains vs. the greenback on Tuesday, now taking GBP/USD to the 1.3480/75 band ahead of the opening bell in Europe.GBP/USD focus on Yellen, BrexitAfter two consecutive sessions in the red territory, Cable is now looking to stabilize below the 1.3500 handle amidst a renewed pick...

09:00 26 September /2017 Forex

EUR/USD nears key support at 1.1820, Yellen in focus Dhwani Mehta

The EUR/USD pair stalled its Asian recovery mode and fell back into the red zone, with the bears now heading for the test of key support located at 1.1820 levels on the back of resurgent USD demand across the board.EUR/USD: All eyes on YellenThe main currency pair reverted to the familiar ranges near ...

09:00 26 September /2017 Forex

RBNZ to maintain status quo on rates – Kiwi Bank Sandeep Kanihama

The RBNZ is expected to leave the OCR unchanged at 1.75% at this week’s September OCR Review, according to the economics team of Kiwi Bank. Key Quotes“While there have been a few pieces of interesting data since the August MPS, we expect this week’s review to pass without much impact.”“Political matters – both domestic and international – are more likely to take centre stage this ...

08:46 26 September /2017 Forex

EU’s Tusk said to plan no Brexit discussions in Talinn – Politico Dhwani Mehta

Politico reporting headlines, cited by Livesquawk, the European Council President Donald Tusk is said to plan no Brexit discussion in Tallinn.

08:46 26 September /2017 Forex

Forex Today: Kiwi falls further on poor NZ trade, Yellen in spotlight Dhwani Mehta

Moderate risk-aversion persisted in the Asian session, in the wake of an ‘Act of War’ announcement made by North Korea, leaving the safe-haven Japanese yen broadly underpinned alongside gold. Meanwhile, US dollar traded with minor weakness on the back of Fed’s divided outlook on inflation and weaker Treasury yields. Among the higher-yielding currencies, Cable recovered ground and traded with moder...

08:23 26 September /2017 Forex

RBNZ to once again leave the OCR at 1.75% - ANZ Sandeep Kanihama

Analysts at ANZ expect the RBNZ to once again leave the OCR at 1.75% and reinforce an ultra-neutral stance.“While global growth is looking stronger, the weight of domestic developments augurs more caution; growth is barely at trend.”“Economic developments, election proximity, and RBNZ leadership changes all mean this decision will be somewhat of a ‘non-event’.”“Our bias is still that the OCR will ...

08:00 26 September /2017 Forex

US Comm Sec Ross: US & China agree bilateral trade frictions should be resolved through negotiation Dhwani Mehta

The US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross is out with a statement, following the trade talks with the Chinese official.Key Headlines:US and China both agree bilateral trade frictions should be resolved through negotiationChinese official continually stressed dialogue is preferable to unilateral actionRelayed US firms' concern at forced tech transfers...

08:00 26 September /2017 Forex

USD shorts rose ahead of the FOMC – RBC CM Sandeep Kanihama

For the week ending September 19, USD shorts increased by 36K to -131K ahead of the FOMC (the highest level of shorts since January 2013), notes the analysis team at RBC Capital Markets.Key Quotes“EUR longs fell by 23K to 63K. JPY shorts were scaled back by 6K to -51K. GBP shorts decreased by 36K to -10K (the lowest level of shorts since November 2015). Positioning in CHF remained...

08:00 26 September /2017 Forex

NZD/USD: Mildly negative bias over the medium-term - ANZ

The lack of election clarity, while perhaps not a surprise for local participants, has spooked international investors to a degree and you’d have to think that until a coalition decision is made, that uncertainty will at least cap the topside for kiwi, according to analysts at ANZ.Key Quotes“But stepping back from the election, we still retain a mildly negative bias for kiwi over ...

07:46 26 September /2017 Forex

Malaysia: Moody's correct in highlighting risk – BBH Sandeep Kanihama

Analysts at BBH note that Moody’s warned last week that Malaysia’s foreign reserves are amongst the weakest in Asia and they agree, as BBH’s rating model has Malaysia at BBB+/Baa1/BBB+ vs. actual ratings of A-/A3/A-.  Key Quotes“Political OutlookThe next national elections don’t have to called until August 2018.  However, speculation is picking up...

07:46 26 September /2017 Forex

Political risks creep back into the EUR – Barclays Dhwani Mehta

Barclays’ Analysts out with the latest review on the German election, evaluating its impact on the Euro.Key Quotes:“If confirmed, the surprising gains by alternative parties and poor performance of the centre establishment parties in Germany's elect...

07:23 26 September /2017 Forex