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UK: Retail sales expected to have fallen in November despite Black Friday – Lloyds Bank

Analysts at Lloyds Bank suggest that evidence from the John Lewis figures, the CBI retail trade survey and the BRC for October point to some improvement in the UK’s annual rate of growth in retail sales.Key Quotes“Of late, these reports have pointed to stronger growth than the official data and we forecast the annual rate moving further lower. With the support from retail discount...

09:23 14 December /2017 Forex

BoE to keep the Bank rate at low levels for some time - Westpac Sandeep Kanihama

Analysts at Westpac, point out that November saw the BOE increase the Bank Rate for the first time in ten years.Key Quotes“The 25 basis point increase removed the ‘emergency’ stimulus that had been introduced in the wake of last year’s Brexit referendum, and still leaves the Bank Rate at the very accommodative level of 0.50%.”“With reduced spare capacity, the scope for the BOE to ...

09:23 14 December /2017 Forex

BoE may strike a cautiously optimistic tone this week - ING Sandeep Kanihama

In view of James Smith, Developed Markets Economist at ING, last week's Brexit breakthrough should herald a relatively swift agreement on a post-Brexit transition period - something Bank of England Governor Carney has been pretty vocal about over recent months.Key Quotes“If a transition deal is agreed early next year, this should help unlock some short-term investment as the risk ...

09:23 14 December /2017 Forex

EUR/USD: Sell the rallies? - Commerzbank Dhwani Mehta

Karen Jones, Analyst at Commerzbank, offers the key technical levels on the EUR/USD pair, as we head towards the ECB monetary policy decision due later today.Key Quotes:“EUR/USD has seen a decent rebound from the 1.1712 21st November low. While we suspect that this ...

09:23 14 December /2017 Forex

Brexit: Progress at last - ING

After months of deadlock, the EU and UK have finally reached a deal which allows the European Council to declare 'sufficient progress' to move onto trade talks, points out the research team at ING.Key Quotes“The UK has reportedly agreed to meet all of the financial commitments set out by the EU earlier this year. They have also accepted that the European Court of Justice will have...

09:01 14 December /2017 Forex

South Africa: The ANC conference, the risk is binary - Nomura

Henrik Gullberg, Research Analyst at Nomura, suggests that things have changed over the past month for South African politics ahead of the ANC elective conference.Key Quotes “On 13 October we recommended positioning for downside in USD/ZAR over a six-month horizon and over the 16-20 December ANC elective conference. At the time the consensus view was very much biased in favour of ...

09:00 14 December /2017 Forex

USD/JPY finds buyers again near 112.50, US retail sales in focus Dhwani Mehta

The USD/JPY pair defends minor-recovery gains as we head towards early Europe, having stalled its post-FOMC rebound at 112.80 levels.USD/JPY meanders near weekly lows of 112.48The spot failed to sustain the renewed uptick and fell back towards the post-09:00 14 December /2017 Forex

China: Stability continues, with few surprises in November - NAB

According to Gerard Burg, Senior Economist at NAB, there were few surprises in China’s November data – at least outside international trade.Key Quotes“The data point to a continuation of the stability we’ve seen across much of the year, and there was nothing to change our views. China’s economy is forecast to grow by 6.8% in 2017, before easing back to 6.5% next year.”“China’s ind...

08:23 14 December /2017 Forex

Moody’s: Fed rate hikes have limited spillover impact on China

Moody’s came out with the latest report on Thursday, providing its afterthoughts on the impact of the Fed rate hike on the Chinese economy.Bloomberg reported that the US-based ratings agency said that Fed rate hikes have limited spillover impact on China.

08:23 14 December /2017 Forex

Ex-PBOC economists: Monetary policy should move toward tightening bias Dhwani Mehta

Former PBOC economists were reported by Xinhua, as saying that the monetary policy should move toward tightening bias.They suggested more Open Market Operation (OMO) rate increase, Xinhua reports.

08:23 14 December /2017 Forex

NZ: Expect 0.4% rise in Q3 GDP, current account deficit to narrow to 2.5% of GDP - Westpac Sandeep Kanihama

According to Michael Gordon, Senior Economist at Westpac, the September quarter is likely to mark the weak point for New Zealand’s economic growth this year and they expect a 0.4% rise in GDP.Key Quotes“Much of the slowdown in growth is due to temporary factors, such as lower milk production and a pullback in tourist spending after an earlier spike.”“The annual current account def...

08:23 14 December /2017 Forex

Forex Today: AUD jumps on Aus jobs big beat, EZ PMIs, CB decisions eyed Dhwani Mehta

The AUD/JPY cross was a bigger mover in Asia, benefiting from solid Aus employment data and stabilizing Treasury yields. The Antipodeans traded mixed, with the Aussie cheering a big beat on the Aus jobs report, while the Kiwi lost ground on stalled USD selling and downbeat NZ Treasury’s half-year economic & fiscal report. The Chinese data dump was broadly ignored by markets.The Asian equities ...

08:23 14 December /2017 Forex

Australia: Broad budget profile likely to be confirmed - Westpac Sandeep Kanihama

In view of analysts at Westpac, the 2017 half yearly budget update of Australia will likely see minimal changes to the economic and fiscal forecasts and projections. That is a welcome change from the experience for much of the post GFC period, when Treasurers so often had to mark down the revenue outlook, they further add.Key Quotes“In the May 2017 Budget, the budget deficit was f...

08:00 14 December /2017 Forex

US: 2018 will be another year of solid growth – NAB

Tony Kelly, Senior Economist at NAB, explains that 2017 has proved to be another year of solid US economic growth and more of the same is expected in 2018, helped along by fiscal stimulus.Key Quotes“Business survey readings are at high levels, as is consumer confidence and employment gains are strong enough to reduce the unemployment rate over time. Even inflation, surprisingly su...

07:46 14 December /2017 Forex

NZ HYEFU: Little change in the bottom-line projections - Westpac

New Zealand government’s Half-Year Fiscal and Economic Update (HYEFU) showed surprisingly little change in the bottom-line projections compared to the May Budget, despite incorporating a range of new spending initiatives from the newly-formed Government, explains the research team at Westpac.Key Quotes“We were particularly surprised to see very little change in the Government’s ex...

07:23 14 December /2017 Forex

Australia: Surge in employment is overstating the momentum in the labour market - Westpac

In Australia, the November surge in employment is overstating the momentum in the labour market as in spite of being a robust market it is more likely that the flat unemployment rate is a better indicator of overall labour market conditions, according to analysts at Westpac.Key QuotesA robust update but don’t get over excitedFlat unemployment suggests a ...

07:23 14 December /2017 Forex

NZ: Expect modest GDP growth of 0.4% q/q in Q3 - ANZ Sandeep Kanihama

Phil Borkin, Senior Economist at ANZ, expects modest GDP growth of 0.4% q/q in Q3 for New Zealand, which would see annual growth ease to 2.2%. Key Quotes“The softness is largely on account of a contraction in primary production, with inventories the main drag on expenditure-based growth.”“The possibility of meaningful historical revisions adds a greater degree of uncertainty than ...

07:23 14 December /2017 Forex

EUR/USD - Yield spread tightens, risk reversals rise ahead of the ECB FXStreet Team

The post-FOMC weakness in the treasury yields and the resulting sell-off in the US dollar pushed the EUR/USD rose to a one-week high of 1.1844.Yield spread tightens & Risk reversals rise in an EUR positive mannerThe spread or the difference between the US 10-year yield and the German 10-year yield dropped to 203 basis po...

07:23 14 December /2017 Forex

GBP/USD - Neutral set up ahead of the BOE FXStreet Team

GBP/USD rose to a 4-day high of 1.3449 in Asia as the Asian desks offered USD, tracking the post-FOMC decline in the treasury yields.PM May's parliamentary defeat a negativeReuters report says, "Prime Minister Theresa May's government was defeated on Wednesday, when lawmakers forced through changes to its Brexit blueprint t...

06:46 14 December /2017 Forex

Hong Kong's central bank raises base rate 25 bps after Fed rate hike - RTRS Dhwani Mehta

Hong Kong's central bank, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, raised the base rate charged through its overnight discount window by 25 basis points on Thursday to 1.75%, after the Fed hiked rates by 25bps overnight.Hong Kong tracks the US rate moves because its currency is pegged to the US dollar.

06:23 14 December /2017 Forex